2025 PREDICTIONS RECAP
EDUCATION (K-12 INSTITUTIONS + HIGHER EDUCATION)
OUR PREDICTIONS WERE CORRECT
HOW DID WE DO?
MORE FROM 2025
Trump Administration Released Plans to Dismantle the Department of Education The Department of Education announced in November that it will shift administration of education programs to other federal departments – and eventually close the DoEd for good. This news marks the most significant unilateral reorganization of the Executive Branch since 1970, according to our Government Relations Group. While Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) recently introduced a bill in the House that would eliminate DoED by the end of 2026, a similar bill failed in 2025. Federal Courts Weighed in on Title IX, SCOTUS Delivered Multiple Wins for Schools
The new administration swiftly cracked down on “gender ideology” in education and launched a Title IX Special Investigations Team in April to focus on schools’ handling of transgender student rights, particularly when it comes to athletics and access to sex-separated facilities. We correctly predicted Title IX cuts, but perhaps no one could have predicted just how far the new administration would go to enforce its new policies and pressure schools that receive federal funding. Trump Administration Reshaped Title IX Enforcement Similarly, we predicted this would happen – but the extent of the scrutiny surprised nearly everyone. President Trump quickly issued a far-reaching executive order to combat “illegal” DEI programs in the private sector, including all private schools (regardless of federal funding status). Then, the Department of Education kicked off a new era of Title VI discrimination in February, which led to civil rights investigations into 52 higher ed institutions related to race- based decisions in graduate and scholarship programs. April brought more executive orders impacting DEI in education, and in May the Department of Justice launched a new Civil Rights Fraud Initiative aimed at federal-funding recipients. Increased Scrutiny of DEI Initiatives In line with our predictions, the Trump administration significantly broadened the scope of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations. The Department of Homeland Security issued a directive in January permitting ICE to target all types of schools and other sensitive locations, which was greenlit by a federal judge in April. New international student enrollments at US colleges and universities decreased by 17% this fall compared to the previous year, according to this report, and 96% of schools surveyed cited visa application concerns as a factor. Immigration Reform Significantly Impacted Schools Just as we predicted, new state laws took hold this year that give parents more power to make decisions related to their child’s education and increase opportunities for religious instruction. Examples include Ohio’s “Parents’ Bill of Rights” law, which took effect in April and applies to public schools in the state, and new school choice programs in Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee. K-12 Schools Saw More Parental Rights, Support for Religious Liberty, and School Choice
At the turn of the year, a federal court in Kentucky tossed out a sweeping Biden- era rule that expanded Title IX protections for LGBTQ+ students. However, Title IX remained a hot topic amid the battle over revenue-sharing systems in collegiate sports (check out our Sports section for more), and in July the Supreme Court agreed to hear two cases that will soon decide whether states can ban transgender high school and college athletes from participating on female sports teams at their schools. In June, SCOTUS delivered two big wins for schools related to the E-rate program in public K-12 schools and tax exemption opportunities for religious schools. New Federal Tax Rules Bring a Mixed Bag for Schools President Trump signed the “Big Beautiful Bill” in July, and the new law includes various provisions that will impact educational institutions and non- profit organizations. For example, a key tax break could help private and independent K-12 schools starting in 2027. However, starting in the 2026 tax year, “endowment tax” rates for private colleges and universities will increase, and excise tax rules will expand for 501(a) tax-exempt institutions that pay compensation or severance above certain thresholds. Lessons From the PowerSchool Cyberattack and New Privacy Concerns The country’s largest provider of cloud-based education software for K-12 schools announced in January that it fell victim to a massive data breach, and the cybercriminal returned months later to extort individual schools. By October, all schools had to take note of new types of risks potentially lurking on their websites and online educational content due to a rise in digital wiretapping litigation and a Michigan federal court’s decision that opened the door for consumer privacy claims under the federal Video Privacy Protection Act.
Jennifer B. Carroll Fort Lauderdale
Partner, Co-Chair K-12 Institutions
Kristin L. Smith Houston/Minneapolis Partner, Co-Chair K-12 Institutions
Shiloh Theberge Portland, ME Partner, Chair Higher Education
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