PREDICTIONS FOR 2026
All Schools The Trump administration will continue to pursue anti-DEI enforcement measures, but DoEd and OCR investigations will become fewer and less thorough as the agency is dismantled. Various education groups will launch litigation to try to block the Trump administration’s restructuring of the DoEd. We also will see a greater emphasis on artificial intelligence and digital learning – creating dual challenges for education leaders. Federal Funding Recipients SCOTUS will decide whether “on the basis of sex” in Title IX covers gender identity – though our team’s predictions are a mixed bag as to which way the Court will rule. In addition, smaller conservative higher ed institutions will agree to the Trump administration’s “Compact” to obtain preferential access to (more) federal funding. K-12 Schools
School voucher programs will continue to expand. The IRS will issue guidance on how federal DEI rules apply to private schools, and the agency will also make changes to the rules for nonprofit schools. We may see more challenges to K-12 independent school admissions, but we will gain clarity from a federal court ruling on the role of race in private school admissions. Higher Education Higher ed institutions will fail at a higher-than-usual rate (or perhaps consolidate with other institutions) due to financial issues exacerbated by the federal funding issues, as well as declining enrollment because of population changes (the enrollment cliff is here). We will see an influx of Title VI discrimination claims based on shared ancestry and ethnic characteristics.
Jennifer B. Carroll Fort Lauderdale Partner, Co-Chair K12 Institutions
Kristin L. Smith Houston/Minneapolis Partner, Co-Chair K12 Institutions
Shiloh Theberge Portland, ME Partner, Chair Higher Education
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