PREDICTIONS FOR 2026
2025 PREDICTIONS RECAP
IMMIGRATION
We’ll See an H-1B Lottery Overhaul We predict that DHS will replace the current random H-1B cap lottery with a weighted selection system that gives higher-wage positions better odds of being chosen, potentially as soon as the March 2026 cap season. Even if litigation slows implementation this coming year, it’s likely to take effect during this administration. The change will heavily favor employers able to offer Level III–IV wages, making it harder for startups, non-profits, and entry-level roles to secure visas. This will force many organizations to rethink compensation strategies and diversify their global- talent pipelines. OPT/STEM OPT Restrictions Will Reshape Early-Career Hiring We predict the administration will release a rule ending or sharply limiting Optional Practical Training – including the 24-month STEM OPT extension. If finalized, the impact could be seismic: • University recruiting pipelines could be hit hard, especially for engineering and tech-heavy industries. • Employers would need to shift toward O-1, TN, H-1B1, and J-1 research trainees to retain foreign graduates. Domestic upskilling and apprenticeship programs would need to surge to fill gaps. Even the initial announcement would deter international students from enrolling – shrinking future talent pools. Employers should plan now for what your entry-level hiring model looks like without OPT.
AI-Powered Enforcement Will Become the Defining Immigration Story of 2026 The deployment of ImmigrationOS will mark a turning point for employer compliance. ICE, DOS, USCIS, and DOL will soon operate within a fully integrated, AI- driven enforcement ecosystem capable of triggering cascading consequences from a single data point. Expect more I-9 investigations (especially tied to remote-verification errors and payroll mismatches), instant visa revocations (often without human review) triggered by arrests,
We predicted President Trump to focus on immigration enforcement, and we were certainly right – especially when it comes to audits and workplace raids. ICE dramatically expanded work-site audits, launched more coordinated raids, and increased pressure on employers to tighten verification practices. Multi-agency enforcement became the norm, with DHS, DOL, and DOJ sharing information more aggressively than in prior years. Our Employer’s Playbook For ICE Audits And Workplace Raids provides a detailed checklist and summarizes how federal agencies intensified work-site investigations, I-9 audits, and targeted operations in 2025. We Saw Heightened Immigration Enforcement
There Was Intense Scrutiny of Work Authorization and Visa Programs
address discrepancies, SEVIS irregularities, or social-media flags, and data-matching sweeps across IRS, SSA, DMV, and passport systems pulling employers into audits they didn’t
We also expected heightened scrutiny of visa programs and employment authorization, and 2025 delivered. The Supreme Court backed the administration’s authority to terminate work authorization for certain foreign nationals, immediately disrupting workforce planning for employers relying on affected programs. The Court also allowed the administration to end TPS for Venezuelans, triggering churn in industries with significant TPS-authorized workforces.
Jocelyn Campanaro Denver Partner, Co-Chair
OUR PREDICTIONS WERE CORRECT
anticipate. Expect More Visa
HOW DID WE DO?
Revocations and Status Whiplash The State Department revoked roughly 40,000 visas in 2025 – double the prior year – and that trajectory will continue in 2026. Revocations will increasingly stem from minor criminal
MORE FROM 2025 $100,000 H-1B Fee and New Employer Guidance
David S. Jones Memphis Regional Managing Partner, Co-Chair
End to Automatic Work-Permit Extensions Federal immigration officials issued an interim final rule ending the long-standing automatic extension (“540-day grace period”) for Employment Authorization Documents (EADs) filed for renewal. The change took effect in October and means that foreign nationals may lose work eligibility if their renewal isn’t adjudicated in time. Employers now face heightened risk of labor- shortages and unplanned termination exposure, and must tighten internal tracking of renewal deadlines.
The administration announced a sweeping change to the H-1B visa program: a one-time $100K fee for each new H-1B petition filed after September 21, 2025, plus accompanying policy guidance and relief measures for existing holders. The move dramatically alters the economics of sponsorship for many employers – especially in tech, engineering, and staffing sectors.
Shanon R. Stevenson Atlanta Partner, Co-Chair
arrests, perceived “inconsistencies” in DS-160 or I-983
forms, online speech, automated SEVIS flags, and employer-level audits triggered by Project Firewall.
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