ISSUE 4 | 2021
02
THE OUTLOOK LOOKS SUPPORTS CONTINUES HEALTHY M&A MARKETS
For the fourth quarter in a row there are over 10,000 rumoured deals. That compares with a typical quarterly total of 8,000 or more and really is grounds for optimism for M&A markets despite the continued effect on many economies around the world of the pandemic.
We expect this picture to be supported by the availability of cash in private equity and capital markets coupled with relatively cheap debt. Inflationary pressures may lead to interest rate rises but interest rates would still continue to be at low historic levels. We believe there will continue to be non-core disposals by larger corporates and private sellers looking to beat possible future capital gains tax rises in certain jurisdictions. The other big factor is private equity realising existing investments that have seen good growth over the last 12 months and seeking to capture current high valuations. GLOBAL THEMES THAT ARE INFLUENCING M&A The availability of cash and strong trading by many companies with good cash generation should continue to fuel M&A activity. As we have noted above, the continued growth of private equity funds should continue to be a major factor. We also expect strategic buyers to continue to be active in the market as they seek to add to capability, especially technology and digital. Finally, and we keep saying this, but we do expect that there will be a rise in stressed and distressed M&A and special situations M&A as some of the government support measures around the world are withdrawn.
For the fifth quarter running our heat charts showed high levels of rumoured mid-market deals and add to the encouraging picture of bounce back and resilience in the M&A markets.
GLOBAL BDO HEAT CHART BY REGION AND SECTOR
TOTAL % *
North America
583 290 882 210 558 268 102 56 42
2991 29%
Greater China
295 602 118 177 162 232 158 65 113
1922 19%
CEE
150 156 42 93 38 56 53 16 8
612 6%
Southern Europe
117 174 47 170 46 89 77 31 18
769 8%
India
75 52 37
54 49 41 28 11
4
351 3%
Latin America
160 54 87
66 23 59 60 20 16
545 5%
Nordic
70 61
21
19 19 29 13 2 2
236 2%
UK/Ireland
112 57 82 65 41
45 47 25 12
486 5%
Australasia
77 60 43 75 45 58 58 35 8
459 5%
DACH
80 99 13 48 45 31
15
5 3
339 3%
Other Asia
69 72 25 36 22 19 14 13 3
262 3%
South East Asia
131
81 54 52 28 68 38 18 39
509 5%
Japan
29 23 6 14 10 27
2 12 5
128 1%
Middle East
33 18 11
6 5 17 11
2 3
106 1%
JOHN STEPHAN HEAD OF GLOBAL M&A
Africa
48 37 12
27 17 28 25
3 5
202 2%
Benelux
28 33 8 26 11
29 10 9 2
173 2%
Israel
27
9 20
8 8 14 7
3 1
85 1%
john.stephan@bdo.co.uk
TOTAL
2,084 1,878 1,508 1,146 1,127 1110 718 326 284 10,181 100%
* Percentage figures are rounded up to the nearest one throughout this publication. Note: The Intelligence Heat Charts are based on 'companies for sale' tracked by Mergermarket in the respective regions between 1 January 2021 and 30 June 2021. Opportunities are captured according to the dominant geography and sector of the potential target company. Mergermarket’s Heat Chart of predicted deal flow is based on the intelligence collected in our database relating to companies rumoured to be for sale, or officially up for sale in the respective regions. It is therefore indicative of areas that are likely to be active in the months to come. The intelligence comes from a range of sources, including press reports, company statements and our own team of journalists gathering proprietary intelligence from M&A across the regions. The data does not differentiate between small and large transactions, nor between deals that could happen in the short or long-term.
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