In introductory economics, there were a few short- hand sayings that were easy ways to remember con- cepts. The fact that I still remember them 17 years lat- er now tells me that they worked. For instance, I will never forget that inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods. It was also so easy to remember that the cure for low prices was low prices and the cure for high prices was high prices. Grain and cattle guys are both living through the last one right now. While my education taught me how to think critically, I am far from being a market analyst. Please do not take the following words as Gospel. However, from my boots-on-the-ground vantage point, I think we are still pretty far from an antidote to high prices in the cattle business. I am not predicting that they will con- tinue this rapid ascent, but I don’t think they are going away anytime soon either. I was around in 2014, the last time the market was at the top of a cattle cycle. It felt like a boomtown. I couldn’t keep my phone charged because I was field- ing so many cold calls. Everyone and their brother (literally) were partnering on 40 heifers from the sale barn, and all they needed were two calving ease bulls to strike it rich on that lottery ticket. This past year has certainly been good to us, but I can go through a workday without taking my gloves off 10 times to answer a call from a number I don’t recognize. There is a lot less diving headfirst and a lot more proceed- ing with caution. In fact, I am getting more calls from LESSONS IN ECONOMICS From Newsletter 142 - September 2025
people wanting out of the business and wanting to know the market and if I have any leads, than I am getting calls from people wanting to expand or get in. From our own operation, my bred females have gone to people as a source for higher quality replacements than they can raise themselves. Their investment is just to keep their herd at replacement rate with some- thing a little better rather than to expand to capitalize on a record market. From our own experience, most of the extra cash flow from the high prices is going to infrastructure investment. I have spent more than I care to tabulate on labor-saving rotational grazing and lane systems in need of updating. The amount of water line that has been installed at our place in the last 18 months can be measured in miles rather than feet. Simply put, we have invested in optimizing our forage utilization rather than increasing the number of calves we have to sell. I am more interested in reducing labor and
12 TH ANNUAL FALL SALE | SMITHS GROVE, KY | OCTOBER 27, 2025 6
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