2020 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan

City of Irvine

2020 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan

Table 3-14: Earthquake Probabilities for Key Faults near Irvine (2015 – 2044) 60 F 91 F 93

Distanc e (Miles)*

Probability

Fault

6.7+ M w

7.0+ M w

7.5+ M w

8.0+ M w Negligible

San Joaquin Hills

0

0.40%

0.38%

0.24%

Newport-Inglewood

8

0.95%

0.81%

0.42%

Negligible

Anaheim

10

0.09%

0.07%

<0.01%

Negligible

Peralta Hills

10

0.23%

0.15%

0.06%

Negligible

Richfield

14

0.02%

<0.01%

Negligible

Negligible

Compton

14

0.60%

0.47%

0.04%

<0.01%

Elysian Park

15

<0.01%

<0.01%

<0.01%

Negligible

Yorba Linda

15

0.09%

0.08%

0.03%

<0.01%

Whittier

16

1.45%

1.26%

0.66%

<0.01%

Puente Hills

18

0.66%

0.58%

0.19%

Negligible

Chino

18

1.42%

0.15%

0.08%

Negligible

Elsinore (Glen Ivy)

19

3.19%

1.68%

0.89%

<0.01%

Palos Verdes

19

3.08%

2.80%

0.09%

Negligible

San Jose

26

0.33%

0.23%

0.03%

Negligible

San Jacinto

41

5.06%

5.06%

5.01%

2.76%

San Andreas †

45

19.47%

13.15%

10.16%

3.27%

* Distance between Irvine Civic Center and the nearest point of the fault. All distances are approximate. † Southern California segments only. Note: UCERF3 results consist of two individual models (3.1 and 3.2), each of which provides rupture probabilities for each segment of the fault. This table shows the maximum probability for a section of the fault in either model.

Table 3-15: Selected Shaking Scenarios for Irvine 94

Fault

Magnitude

Distance to Epicenter (Miles)*

MMI in Irvine

Newport-Inglewood

7.2

21

VII (Very strong) – VIII (Destructive)

7.2

21

VII (Very strong) – VIII (Destructive)

7.0

20

VI (Strong) – VII (Very strong)

San Joaquin Hills

7.0

10

VIII (Destructive)

Peralta Hills

6.6

15

VII (Very strong)

Whittier

7.0

19

VII (Very strong) – VIII (Destructive)

Chino

6.6

16

VI (Strong) – VII (Very strong)

6.8

17

VI (Strong) – VII (Very strong)

Palos Verdes

7.4

18

VII (Very strong)

San Jacinto

7.7

40

IX (Violent)

San Andreas IX (Violent) *Distance between Irvine Civic Center and the epicenter (the point on the surface above where the fault rupture began). 7.9 45

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