City of Irvine
2020 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan
Table 3-14: Earthquake Probabilities for Key Faults near Irvine (2015 – 2044) 60 F 91 F 93
Distanc e (Miles)*
Probability
Fault
6.7+ M w
7.0+ M w
7.5+ M w
8.0+ M w Negligible
San Joaquin Hills
0
0.40%
0.38%
0.24%
Newport-Inglewood
8
0.95%
0.81%
0.42%
Negligible
Anaheim
10
0.09%
0.07%
<0.01%
Negligible
Peralta Hills
10
0.23%
0.15%
0.06%
Negligible
Richfield
14
0.02%
<0.01%
Negligible
Negligible
Compton
14
0.60%
0.47%
0.04%
<0.01%
Elysian Park
15
<0.01%
<0.01%
<0.01%
Negligible
Yorba Linda
15
0.09%
0.08%
0.03%
<0.01%
Whittier
16
1.45%
1.26%
0.66%
<0.01%
Puente Hills
18
0.66%
0.58%
0.19%
Negligible
Chino
18
1.42%
0.15%
0.08%
Negligible
Elsinore (Glen Ivy)
19
3.19%
1.68%
0.89%
<0.01%
Palos Verdes
19
3.08%
2.80%
0.09%
Negligible
San Jose
26
0.33%
0.23%
0.03%
Negligible
San Jacinto
41
5.06%
5.06%
5.01%
2.76%
San Andreas †
45
19.47%
13.15%
10.16%
3.27%
* Distance between Irvine Civic Center and the nearest point of the fault. All distances are approximate. † Southern California segments only. Note: UCERF3 results consist of two individual models (3.1 and 3.2), each of which provides rupture probabilities for each segment of the fault. This table shows the maximum probability for a section of the fault in either model.
Table 3-15: Selected Shaking Scenarios for Irvine 94
Fault
Magnitude
Distance to Epicenter (Miles)*
MMI in Irvine
Newport-Inglewood
7.2
21
VII (Very strong) – VIII (Destructive)
7.2
21
VII (Very strong) – VIII (Destructive)
7.0
20
VI (Strong) – VII (Very strong)
San Joaquin Hills
7.0
10
VIII (Destructive)
Peralta Hills
6.6
15
VII (Very strong)
Whittier
7.0
19
VII (Very strong) – VIII (Destructive)
Chino
6.6
16
VI (Strong) – VII (Very strong)
6.8
17
VI (Strong) – VII (Very strong)
Palos Verdes
7.4
18
VII (Very strong)
San Jacinto
7.7
40
IX (Violent)
San Andreas IX (Violent) *Distance between Irvine Civic Center and the epicenter (the point on the surface above where the fault rupture began). 7.9 45
74
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