City of Irvine
2020 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan
Risk of Future Events
The history of wildfires in Orange County and the presence of VHFHSZs in and around the community mean that such events are very likely in the future. The risk is expected to remain highest in the foothills of the Santa Ana Mountains and San Joaquin Hills, which have the right conditions for wildfire incidents.
Climate Change Considerations
Climate change is expected to cause an increase in temperatures as well as more frequent and intense drought conditions. This will likely increase the amount of dry plant matter available for fuel, increasing the risk of wildfire statewide. In the foothills of the Santa Ana Mountains and San Joaquin Hills, which are already highly prone to wildfires, climate change is expected to increase the number of acres burned annually. Based on current modeling, the annual average of area burned could increase to 235 hectares, which is an increase of over 45 hectares from the annual mean for 1961-1990. 118 However, increases in fuel supplies could cause wildfires to move faster or spread into more- developed areas, which could increase the threat to Irvine.
Figure 3-14: Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones
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