Appendix 2 - Methodology for combining individual scenarios
The local analysis carried out for each of the county areas included scenarios of different numbers of unitary authorities, and often multiple variants comprising the same number of unitaries but with different boundaries, according to the options being considered locally. For example multiple scenarios exist where a county area is being disaggregated into two unitaries, but with boundaries drawn in different places. In order to aggregate this analysis and produce a national picture, a consistent approach to the number and potential size of unitary councils across different areas was taken, reflecting the size of the population and potential number of unitary councils. Therefore, in collaboration with local areas, a single most likely configuration of 2, 3, 4 and 5 unitary options for each area was selected to provide a basis for consistent and comparative analysis. Four or five unitary scenarios were only included for geographies with a population of more than 1 million people and which had a four or five unitary scenario shortlisted. Twelve areas with a population below 1 million had the option of a county-wide unitary authority included within the scenario-based analysis. This resulted in 58 scenarios and 146 different unitary footprints being selected for inclusion within the national analysis. The unitary authorities included within these scenarios were then segmented into population groupings, relating to the total population of the proposed authority. These groupings were:
Authorities with a population lower than 300,000.
Authorities with a population of 300,000 to 500,000.
Authorities with a population greater than 500,000.
Demand, unit cost and quality metrics for each of these unitary authorities were measured against the county baseline. For the demand analysis and High Needs Block analysis, the relative positions of different unitaries were measured against each other. This provided a fair basis to produce average positions and ranges for each population grouping in order to draw comparisons. Where analysis is presented as measured against a baseline, the baseline includes neighbouring unitaries where these are included in proposed LGR scenarios.
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