This national report has been developed to provide objective, impartial evidence, and to summarise themes and learning at a national level, based upon bespoke local analysis conducted on behalf of CCN member councils and additional sector engagement. The analysis in this report is intended to provide an input to a much wider debate, to inform and guide developing proposals, ministerial decisions, and planning at both a local and national level.
Further details on the approach to local and national modelling is outlined in Box 2 below and in the Appendices. Alongside these data driven insights, qualitative engagement on the impact of LGR on people-based services was undertaken to further explore the themes of this research. This included a series of roundtable discussions with Chief Executives Officers (CEOs), Directors of Children’s Social Care (DCSs) and Directors of Adults Social Services (DASSs) who have previously experienced local government reorganisation, with workshops also conducted in each of the 19 participating authorities. Moreover, during Summer 2025, a survey was conducted by CCN and Newton with CEOs, DCSs and DASSs across the 21 county councils in England on the opportunities and risks of LGR on people- based services. The survey received 39 responses in total, with three quarters of respondents a current DCS or DASS. Overall, 39% of all county council CEOs responded to the survey, 62% of DASSs and 66% of DCSs.
2.3 Approach
The development of this report was overseen by a Steering Group comprising officers from all participating authorities and involved bespoke research across 19 of the 21 LGR areas in England, plus 16 neighbouring existing unitary authorities. In total, the local programme of analysis examined 77 different unitary formation scenarios, resulting in 205 possible new unitary footprints. The programme’s analysis drew on detailed data returns across adult social care, children’s services, SEND, and home to school transport from each participating authority and some neighbouring unitary councils. Overall, this encompassed data regarding over half a million residents, supplemented by national data returns where required. The expected demand and/or caseload for key people services within each county was calculated across the unitary geographies analysed. The change to the baseline has been calculated as well as the variation between the new authorities within each scenario. This includes a view of how demand and cost of service delivery will split on day one and how this may change over time (until 2040).
2.4 Limitations of this analysis
Given the aims and scope outlined above, it is important to be aware that neither this report, nor the underlying analysis, are intended to provide a comprehensive assessment or forecast of the long-term need for support from authorities’ people services. To enable an informed and comparable evaluation of different options, several core assumptions have been made about levels of potential need for support and factors which may influence this, and these assumptions have been applied to all areas consistently. Local areas will be able to adjust these with their own more detailed forecast modelling if desired.
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