Box 02: Approach to national modelling
In the following sections of this report, two forms of analysis are presented:
Regression analysis: A regression analysis of nationally available unit cost data from across all current local authorities in England data was conducted, to examine the key factors which drive the unit cost of care in people services. The analysis explored the relationship between each potential factor and unit cost, whilst holding all others constant. This included demographic factors, such as the level of deprivation, as well as factors specific to the local authority, primarily focussed on understanding the impact of scale and purchasing power. These relationships were then used in the local area analysis. The same approach was used to analyse the relationship with Ofsted and CQC outcomes for the service quality analysis. National analysis: The local analysis carried out for each of the county areas included scenarios of different numbers of unitary authorities, and often multiple variants comprising the same number of unitaries but with different boundaries, according to the options being considered locally. For example, multiple scenarios exist where a county area is considering disaggregation into two unitaries, but with boundaries drawn in different places. In order to aggregate this analysis and produce a national picture, a consistent approach was taken to the number and potential size of unitary councils across different areas, taking into account the size of the population and potential number of unitary councils. Therefore, in collaboration with local areas, a single most realistic and sustainable configuration of 2, 3, 4 and 5 unitary options for each area was selected to provide a basis for consistent and comparative analysis. Depending on the size of the individual LGR geography, if the area had not initially requested these option to be modelled within their local analysis, these councils were asked to provide the most realistic configuration based on local factors. Only areas with a combined population above 750,000 included a three unitary option. Four or five unitary scenarios were only included for geographies with a) a population of more than 1 million people and b) where a four or five unitary scenario was potentially feasible within the geography. Twelve areas with a population below 1 million had the option of a county-wide unitary authority included within the national analysis. This resulted in 58 scenarios and 146 different unitary footprints being selected for inclusion within the national analysis. These scenarios could then be aggregated and summarised to produce the analysis included within this report.
Further details on the approach to aggregating scenarios can be found in the Appendices.
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