The following factors were raised as both a risk and an opportunity, depending on how implementation is carried out:
High Needs Deficits
LGR will lead to new authorities taking on debt from their predecessors. The impact of disaggregation will be critical when considering the High Needs Block (HNB) deficits , which are currently estimated to reach £2.7bn across CCN member areas by March 2026, and £5.9bn nationally. As the number of unitary authorities increases (and as the scale of these authorities reduces), stakeholders were concerned about the potential variation in the level of risk associated with the HNB and inherited deficits. 9
Partnerships
Maintaining alignment with partners – in particular health partners – was highlighted as a potential benefit if there can be co- terminosity between health partners and local authorities. However, stakeholders also highlighted the risk introduced by further disaggregation, creating the potential for more service boundaries and handovers to exist for an individual or family receiving support.
Service quality
Public service reform
Stakeholders suggested that sustaining the quality of people services may be at risk due to LGR , with smaller services generally struggling to retain experienced leadership teams and invest in service improvement to the same extent.
Alignment with wider service reform, including, for example, establishing regional care co-operatives which are seeking to increase scale and purchasing power in commissioning. If well aligned, this could lead to a simplified system with clearer accountability, but if this opportunity is missed, stakeholders cautioned that systems could become more complex, with more individual partners and service boundaries. Survey findings - risks This programme’s survey of county council CEOs, DASS, and DCSs demonstrates concern amongst the most senior frontline professionals that the greater the number of new unitary authorities created and the smaller the population, the higher the risk posed by disaggregation to people-based services (as demonstrated in Figure 3 below).
Staffing
Most stakeholders engaged emphasised the risk associated with the recruitment and retention of senior staff . This is based both on the potential for increased attrition in senior roles and from the increased requirement for these senior roles, as services are disaggregated and more posts created.
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