Disaggregation of people services of any sort will see variation in the rate of demand for each new local authority. This is inevitable and will reflect the demographics of the new population and the characteristics of the new authority. For example, if disaggregation led to deprivation being concentrated into one new authority, this authority would expect to see greater demand than the other newly formed authorities. Conversely, the other newly formed authorities may see significantly less demand. This difference in the rate of demand between the new authorities is of significance, and this analysis has sought to understand its extent and the impact of different population size unitary councils in mitigating the risks. Where large variation is introduced (i.e. where one or more of the new authorities has significantly more, or significantly less, demand than the other(s)), this must be understood in order for resources to be allocated accordingly, and consideration given to the viability of care supply. If this is not fully understood and mitigated, there is a risk that newly formed authorities will either be overwhelmed by demand and will not be sustainable in the long-term, or will be left with expensive care settings which are not being fully utilised. Section 6 provides further details about the cost implications of the projected demand changes, and the Appendix provides detail of
the methodology, and modelling assumptions that have been made.
34
35
Made with FlippingBook - Online catalogs