For each of the reorganisation scenarios and geographies included in the national analysis as part this programme, the likely rate of total demand for people services (measured by the proportion of the population interacting with people services) has been estimated for each new unitary authority. The new likely rate of demand can then be compared to the baseline position of the existing upper-tier authorities, and compared between the potential new authorities created in a place, to assess the likely variation. 4.1 Projected variation in demand
The analysis below in Figure 7 shows clearly that as the size of the new proposed unitary authority decreases, the potential variation in demand becomes more significant. This therefore creates a higher risk that newly formed local authorities will be exposed to extremes in demand variation. As a result they are also more likely to be overwhelmed by demand that may not be sustainable in the long-term, or could be left with expensive care settings which are not being fully utilised.
Figure 7: Demand variation between new authorities (scenario-based analysis)
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