4.2 Rate of demand growth
Further complexity is introduced when considering the rate of growth (or contraction) of demand in the future. Newly formed local authorities who may have similar rates of demand today, may experience different changes in their rates of demand, and will therefore diverge in the future. This programme has analysed the projected rates of growth of demand in each proposed unitary authority, and compared these to the baseline.
This analysis demonstrates that rates of demand growth or contraction will vary more significantly in smaller local authorities. Whilst resources and demand for services may be matched on day one, this may become mismatched very rapidly as demand changes over time. This effect is most pronounced in services for young people with SEND. This underlines the need to minimise disaggregation, maximise the scale of resulting authorities, and ensure that funding is allocated highly accurately.
Figure 16: Relative variation in rate of change in demand measured against baseline, with size of new unitary
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