Five key messages from this analysis
The government’s forthcoming decisions about the size of new unitary councils will have profound, long-lasting impacts on the most vulnerable members of society. The evidence strongly suggests larger-scale councils are essential to preserve service quality, prevent rising costs, and ensure financial sustainability of people-based services. 01
New unitary councils with populations substantially below 500,000 people will increase the price councils pay for care, putting further financial costs on these under-pressure services. Modelling suggests that if all new unitary councils had a population below this figure, this would result in additional unit costs of between £180m and £270m annually solely as a result of reductions in purchasing power. In contrast, if all new unitary councils had a population above 500,000, it would reduce care fees by £65m a year across England. Splitting county councils into smaller local authorities will require hundreds of new senior roles as councils already grapple with a shortfall in care staff. Modelling shows that if all new unitary councils had a population of below 500,000, this would result in a requirement of between 500 - 1,100 additional management and senior roles in care services. In contrast, if all new unitary councils had a population of above 500,000, fewer senior managers than are currently in place will be required, saving those areas money to reinvest in care services. Breaking up high-performing county councils into substantially smaller councils could lead to worse services. The report reveals that larger authorities are more likely to receive ‘Outstanding’ or ‘Good’ ratings from Ofsted for children’s services. Currently, 16 of the 21 county councils are already good or outstanding for these services. Consequently, directors of care and special needs services warn in the report that smaller services could struggle to attract staff and invest in improving services. Splitting county councils into smaller unitaries covering populations as small as 300,000 or lower could see some of these new authorities overwhelmed with demand. The report finds that the smaller the council, the more they could experience extreme concentrations of care users: effectively meaning care costs are highly variable between new authorities and may exceed planned budgets. This could leave some councils exposed to unaffordable costs and the use of expensive out of area placements. This could challenge their financial sustainability from inception.
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