1.1 Background and context
The research employed two complementary analytical approaches:
Through the English Devolution White Paper published in December 2024, the government has initiated the most significant restructuring of council arrangements in a generation, aiming to eliminate the two-tier local government system by 2028. This reorganisation will affect 21 two-tier areas across England, with proposals ranging from creating single unitary authorities to establishing up to five separate councils within individual county areas. This report, commissioned by the County Councils Network (CCN) and delivered by Newton, presents objective, impartial evidence on how local government reorganisation (LGR) will impact people- based services - including adult social care, children's services, and Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) provision. Specifically, this work has explored the impact of the geographical footprint and population sizes of new unitary councils on the costs and risks associated with the disaggregation of county-wide services.
Quantitative analysis:
Regression analysis: A regression analysis was conducted to isolate the impact of population scale on demand, cost, and service quality while controlling for demographic factors such as deprivation and median household income. Demand and cost projections were modelled through to 2040, incorporating both current resident data and demographic projections. National analysis: Building on the bespoke analysis, in collaboration with local areas, a single most realistic and sustainable configuration of 2, 3, 4 and 5 unitary options for each area was selected for the national analysis to provide a basis for consistent and comparative analysis. This resulted in 58 scenarios and 146 different unitary footprints being selected for inclusion within the national analysis. These scenarios could then be aggregated and summarised to produce the analysis included within this report.
1.2 Methodology and scope
Qualitative research:
The development of this report encompassed bespoke research across 19 of the 21 LGR areas in England, plus 16 neighbouring existing unitary authorities. The programme examined 77 different unitary formation scenarios, resulting in 205 possible new unitary footprints, and analysed detailed data from over half a million individuals across adult social care, children's services and SEND. It was overseen by a Steering Group comprising of officers from all participating authorities.
A survey of 39 senior officers (Chief Executive Officers, Directors of Adult Social Services, and Directors of Children's Social Care) across county councils. Roundtable discussions with senior leaders who had previously experienced local government reorganisation. Workshops conducted in each of the 19 participating authorities.
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