Demand variation
For each of the reorganisation scenarios and geographies included in the national analysis as part this programme, the likely rate of total demand for people services (measured by the proportion of the population interacting with people services) has been estimated for each potential new unitary authority. The analysis for this programme clearly shows that as the size of the new proposed unitary authority decreases, the potential variation in demand becomes more significant. This demonstrates there is greater risk that newly formed local authorities with a population below 500,000 will be exposed to extremes in demand variation, and therefore overwhelmed by demand that will not be sustainable in the long-term, or will be left with expensive care settings which are not being fully utilised. When examining this effect at an individual service level, the trend is largely still present, albeit less pronounced. However, for every service analysed, the variation in demand is shown to be less significant where newly formed unitaries have a population of 500,000 or more.
Average total demand variation within each scenario
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
300k or below 300-500k
500k+
New unitary size
Total demand variation within each scenario
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