Appendix 1 - detailed methodology for individual county area analysis
Overview of scope
This work focuses on the people the council supports and the demand on commissioned care for people in future scenarios. The financial cost analysis includes the cost of this care, and direct senior staff and management in these services. This work does not look to model the disaggregation of corporate and support functions or wider infrastructure spend , and the cost of them in future scenarios.
Demand modelling methodology
To model how demand is expected to vary by geography and change over time, the population has been segmented. This enables forecasts for new geographical footprints to be provided, and enables the analysis to control for the impact of deprivation and population density in its forecasting. When the features that have the biggest impact on Social Care demand for a population are considered, it is evident that these are age and deprivation. The model has segmented an area’s population by age and used the smallest practical geography to control for deprivation, as a smaller geography provides more accuracy.
For each segment ( i.e. U18 in MSOA x ) of the population:
Segment demand = segment population x segment prevalence
Through making a series of sensible assumptions on how prevalence and population is expected to change within a segment, expected demand in that segment can be forecasted. See Diagram 1 below.
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