Where they exist, ONS population projections have been used, however:
Looking at ONS Projections vs ONS Estimates there is occasionally a discrepancy at a district level. Where there is a significant difference, a simple model has been applied based on historic trends to projected forward To get MSOA % population of a local authority, historic proportions have been used with some trend adjustments where needed To get age group projections, historic MSOA distributions have been used To reflect a projected increase in older adults, the proportion of 65+ residents has been scaled up to match ONS national projections, whilst scaling down the 0-17 age group to reflect a declining birth rate.
What is meant by prevalence
The following approach has been used to project prevalence:
Diagram 2 - Approach to modelling prevalence
Approach to unknowns within the data return
To handle where values in data returns have been redacted, or where demand data has been given for districts / MSOAs which are ‘Out of County’. The following approach has been taken:
Redactions:
Where MSOA-level data returns are heavily suppressed, the analysis has instead been run using the district-level data return. Where cost data is redacted, the average cost of districts / MSOAs with data for that year has been used. Where no more detailed information has been provided, 2.5 has been assumed. This is as instances of 5 or more would be included.
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