Unknown and Out of County:
Where ‘unknown’ locality data, UASC, or Out of County data has been provided, this has been redistributed across districts / MSOAs within the current county. For demand data, this demand has been spread out across the current county through weighting against the relevant population segment (e.g. U18s for Childrens). This is essentially a likelihood that the unknown demand came from a certain district / MSOA within the county. To account for the fact that Out of County placements may differ in cost to in-county placements, where cost data is provided, the average unit cost for each demand type per district / MSOA has been back-worked. This ensures total forecasted costs remain accurate & constant pre and post value re-distribution. Unit costs at a district level may appear greater than that provided in the data return, if the cost data provided for Out of County / Unknown placements are greater than in- county, to account for the greater cost of Out of County placements.
Modelling changes in prevalence over time
Adults and Children’s Social Care
To project prevalence going forward, for ASC and CSC, the average prevalence from actuals has been calculated, for the period FY21/22 through FY23/24, and the same prevalence going forward applied. These years were chosen (1) to avoid influence from COVID-19 and (2) as longer-term data is rarely available, for the same set of districts, utilising the same methodology. For ASC, in the longer term, a prevalence trend has then been proportionally modelled back towards originating demand.
SEND
As the prevalence of SEND has greatly increased over the past few years, a linear increase for type of SEND setting has been modelled for each district / MSOA. Where there was not a clear linear increase, the average prevalence was used instead. The SEND prevalence for each setting type is ‘frozen’ at the year that the total SEND prevalence across setting types reaches 5.5% of the under 24 population segment. Any years afterwards will have this fixed prevalence.
Other aspects of the report (Home to School transport, Absences and Exclusions etc.)
The programme’s approach to modelling other sections of the report are detailed further into this methodology appendix.
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