Population segments used
These are used for both prevalence calculations, and for the weighted redistribution of unknown data.
Table 1 - Population segments used
Cohort
Population segment used
ASC: Older Adults
65+
ASC: Working Age Adults
18 – 65
CSC: Children's Social Care
Under 18
Under 25
SEND (and Home to School transport)
Placement vs originating prevalence
It is well understood that there are more placements in some parts of the county than others, relative to local demand. As a result, service users are placed in areas of the county that are not the same as their originating address. This means that the data currently shows an artificially distorted view of need across the county. As the population tends to its “natural” demographics, this distortion would be expected to unwind over time, and social care need to equalise across geographies. This phenomenon will only impact “placement” based services (e.g. Residential Care), and not community services (e.g. domestic care). For each service, cost and demand analysis have been produced for 2 key scenarios, summarised in Table 3 below.
Table 2 - Length of stay calculations
Length of stay
In the longer term, the prevalence is expected to trend back towards the distribution of prevalence suggested from originating data (or where unavailable, domestic care demand). For longer term forecasts (2030 and 2040), and for three types of placement care – Nursing Care, Residential Care and Supported Living - the prevalences have been blended between placement prevalence and originating prevalence with the weightings on the right.
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