Table 3 - Placement vs originating prevalence
Long term population driven prevalence (2030 and 2040)
Service
Day 1 prevalence (2025)
No change in prevalence : the analysis has been performed based on the child’s originating / parental address, which will not change as a result of the location of the child's placement. The long-term population driven prevalence forecast is shaped towards the distribution of service users by originating address where known. As the population across the county tends to its natural demographics, the prevalence of Nursing Care and Residential Care placements is expected to tend to the same distribution between districts as Nursing Care and Residential Care demand by origin. Where this data is unavailable, the prevalence rate of domestic care has been used (as this service does not result in service users changing address). For the longer term forecasts a prevalence rate
It has been assumed that these placements will be distributed with respect to their originating address , not the placement address.
Childrens: Children in Care
Using known demand and cost data for each placement provides a forecast for each district based on service users currently placed in that locality . These forecasts will have demographic distortions baked in as services users are not expected to be moved due to changes in boundaries.
Adult: Residential Care, Nursing Care and Supported Living placements
has been used that is distributed in this way.
For Other care types, or where placement information is not available, the forecast for each district is based on the service user’s originating address.
No change in prevalence : the analysis has been performed based on the service user’s originating address .
Adult: Other care types
93
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