Table 4 - Summary ASC, CSC and SEND demand modelling
Assumptions for 2030 & 2040 (where this differs)
Handling of neighbouring unitaries
Cohort
Assumptions for Day 1 (2025)
For Day 1 only, prevalence remains the same as past average per district / MSOA, based on placement address. For OP, use population 65+ for prevalence and population forecasts. Practice is consistent across current LA footprints. For Day 1 only, prevalence remains the same as the past average per district / MSOA, based on placement address. For WAA, use population 18-65+ for prevalence and
For residential-type settings, assume "natural" demographic demand is proportionally spread as per originating address where available or as per dom care between districts / MSOAs. For OA: Assume average placement duration of 2 years. For residential-type settings, assume "natural" demographic demand is proportionally spread as per originating address where available or as per dom care between districts / MSOAs. For WAA: Assume average placement duration of 15 years.
Where demand & cost data has been provided for neighbouring unitaries: Where this includes demand originating in that neighbouring unitary, this demand has been used to calculate the prevalences in the districts / MSOAs of the neighbouring unitary. Where this data has not been provided: If this data is unavailable or the data only shows current placements in that neighbouring unitary (but not demand originating within that neighbouring unitarity). Instead, the average prevalence from distracts/MSOAS currently within the local authority have been used. This is to avoid demand appearing lower in scenarios with neighbouring unitaries.
Older Adult
Working Age Adult
population forecasts. Practice is consistent across current LA footprints.
For Day 1 and 2030 & 2040, prevalence remains the same as past average per district / MSOA. Use U18 population. Assumed that spend will be divided by originating address rather than placement address, therefore analysis completed based on parents’ address (not placement address) Practice is consistent across current LA footprints.
Children’s
Where this data has been provided
Similarly, this data has been used without modifications.
Where this data has not been provided The total number of EHCPs from the national Government SEND report have been used. This is at LA level, so the prevalence for all MSOAs within an LA where national data has been used will have the same starting prevalence. To split this by SEND
Prevalence is calculated from U25 population and will increase over time as per the trend in the district / MSOA over the past 3 years. This increase is included in Day 1 (2025) projections. A linear regression model has been used, capped at 5.5% of population. If this resulted in negative or no linear forecast, it has instead been assumed that the prevalence will stay the same over time. Breakdown by setting in same proportions as the average over the time period data is available for.
SEND
provision type, The same average % has then been applied.
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