Under what circumstances is genocide likely to occur? – PO- 3330- Matt Stevens
It is estimated that upwards of 150 million people perished as a result of genocide in the 20 th Century. 41 Subsequently, the study of genocide, its causes, and consequences,
has become an area of great interest among academics. One area that has seen
particular interest is the discussion regarding the circumstances that facilitate or
encourage genocide – not only does understanding the circumstances under which
genocide occurs provide important context for the reasoning behind historical
genocides, but it also provides useful insights that can be used to identify
contemporary states at risk of devolving into genocide before it occurs. This essay will
utilise three prominent case studies – the Ottoman genocide of Armenians during the
First World War, the genocide of Cambodians in Democratic Kampuchea, and the
Rwandan Genocide of 1994 – to explore the circumstances of political instability and
the rise of ideologically exclusivist groups, growing social fragmentation, and
significant economic downturn, and discuss whether they can be considered
circumstances under which genocide is likely to occur.
Arguably, the most important circumstance that can facilitate genocide is increased
political instability. The accountability that has become a cornerstone of democracy
means that democratic governments rarely pursue genocidal policies during times of
struggle (many democracies have pursued genocidal policies in relation to
colonialism) – parties with these views rarely gain power and often lose it before they
can encourage violence. However, in countries where the government is undermined
or weakened by an ongoing conflict, or where the regime has changed hands through a
revolution or coup, exclusivist groups are much more likely to seize power and act
41 Benjamin A. Valentino, Final Solutions: Mass Killing and Genocide in the 20 th Century (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2013), p. 1.
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