We analyze the trends and situation of the Spanish real estate market based on data from the first half of 2023, including figures from the luxury segment.
LUCAS FOX SPANISH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT FIRST HALF 2023
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
CONTENTS
Interactive document
03 A WORD FROM THE FOUNDERS
04 ABOUT THIS REPORT
05 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
06 MARKET ANALYSIS
11 THE PRIME MARKET
13 BUYER PROFILE
14 REGIONAL SECTIONS
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
FROM THE FOUNDERS A WORD
E merging from the long recovery of the pandemic, 2022 closed as a historical year of growth for the Spanish housing market and for Lucas Fox, with unprecedented appetite for residential properties. This was especially apparent in the luxury segments that attract foreign investors, who continue to display their confidence in the Spanish market. Coming into 2023 we see the market stabilising into a continued growth trajectory comparable to pre-pandemic levels. Despite sustained geopolitical uncertainty at European level and national political shifts, the Spanish economy has shown a strong performance to date.
Continued local and foreign demand for upmarket homes in Spain’s leading cities and sought-after coastal areas has again played to Lucas Fox’s strengths as an international brand with a superior quality of service that comes from decades of experience and leadership in the prime real estate segment. As a result, we have been able to take advantage of today’s strong demand. With its favourable climate and privileged location, many of our international clients view Spain as a safe haven in times of increased uncertainty, so we expect this strong demand to continue for many years as we focus on offering our clients the best portfolio of properties for sale in all the areas we cover.
ALEX VAUGHAN & STIJN TEEUWEN Founders
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
ABOUT THIS REPORT
With more than 30 offices in prime areas of Spain, Andorra, Portugal and the south of France focusing on property brokerage services for both local and international clients, Lucas Fox has a unique perspective that we periodically share in our market reports to help our clients and business partners understand the current state of the prime Spanish property market, in particular the regions and segments of most interest to mid to high-end local and foreign buyers. Unless otherwise stated, we used the latest data available from the Ministry of Transport, Mobility, and Urban Agenda (MITMA) for sales
figures, and the property portal Idealista for asking price data. Buyer profiles are based on Lucas Fox data for new sales contracts signed in the first half of 2023. In places where we use data from the College of Spanish Notaries or Spanish Land Registrars’ Association, we make this clear. House price data from the notaries is based on actual sales prices. Trend lines and index gauges start in the first quarter of 2019 to benchmark market performance against the last normal year before the coronavirus pandemic, and help illustrate how the market has performed since then.
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Spanish property market had an excellent first half of 2023, with key market indicators like home sales, mortgage lending, and house prices at or near decade highs. The market’s overall performance was second only to last year, when it went through a period of post-pandemic euphoria that has given way to a solid recovery underpinned by strong local and foreign demand. Half way through 2023, and with the available figures in hand, all the indicators point towards a levelling out after last year’s boom as the Spanish housing market shows extraordinary resilience in the face of headwinds like rising interest rates and political uncertainty. Foreign buyers, in particular, appear to have an undiminished appetite for property in Spain so far this year. Despite slightly softer sales compared to last year’s exceptional growth, house prices have held their ground, with the latest figures showing a small fall in completed sale prices, and an upward acceleration in asking prices towards double digits in the second quarter. Prices are being supported by strong demand coupled with a shortage of high-quality property for sale in big cities and popular coastal areas that has persistently impacted the market for the last couple of years. Considering how well the housing market has handled the challenges of the first half of 2023, and the positive performance of the Spanish economy with record employment figures in Q2, the outlook for the rest of the year remains encouraging in the absence of any unexpected shocks.
SALES INDEX, BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA
PRICE INDEX, BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista / Notaries
SPAIN
ASKING PRICE
SOLD PRICE (JUNE)
100
100
100
113.2
114.1
117.8
50
150
50
150
50
150
Q1 sales 157,817
Y-O-Y -10%
Trend
Q2 €/sqm 1,990
Y-O-Y 7.6%
Trend
Q2 €/sqm 1,616
Y-O-Y -1.7%
Trend
The sales and price index gauges show how much sales and prices have changed in percentage terms between Q1 2019 and Q1 2023 (Q2 in the case of asking prices).Q1 2019 = 100.
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
MARKET ANALYSIS
TOTAL SALES Source: Notaries
400,000
75%
TRANSACTIONS
50%
300,000
Spanish home sales declined by 11.6% year-on-year to just over 328,000 transactions in the first half, according to the General Council of Spanish Notaries. Looking back over a longer time frame there were 672,780 sales over 12 months to the end of June, down 7% on the same period a year before. Although sales were down in the first half compared to 2022, they were the highest on record compared to any other year in the last decade and a half, and 13% higher than the same period in 2019 - the last normal year before the pandemic. The ‘Total Sales’ chart comparing first half sales every year for the last decade illustrates the resilience of the market this year. Whilst a moderate slowdown in sales was to be expected after the boom that took off last year in the wake of the pandemic, and was already materialising in the second half of 2022, the continued buoyancy of the market in 2023 has taken many people by surprise.
Looking at first half transactions in regions with mid to high-end segments serviced by Lucas Fox offices, compared with sales in the first half of 2019 before the pandemic disrupted the market, sales were higher or unchanged in six out of eight regions, with a 1% decline in the Balearics, and 9% decline in the Basque country. Sales have risen the most in the Valencian region (+24%) followed by Galicia (+17%), Andalusia (+15%) and Catalonia (+10%).
25%
200,000
0%
100,000
-25%
-50%
0
H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018 H2 2018 H1 2019 H2 2019 H1 2020 H2 2020 H1 2021 H2 2021 H1 2022 H2 2022 H1 2023
FIRST HALF 2023 SALES COMPARED TO 2019 SELECTED REGIONS Source: Notaries
30%
24%
20%
17%
15%
13%
10%
10%
0%
0%
-1%
-9%
-10%
VALENCIAN R.
GALICIA
ANDALUSIA
SPAIN
CATALONIA
MADRID
BALEARICS
BASQUE C.
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
SPANISH HOUSING PRICES, NATIONAL YEAR-ON-YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGE Source: Notaries / Idealista
15%
10%
ASKING PRICES
PRICES
5%
The coronavirus had an unexpected impact on Spanish house prices, which appear to have been boosted by the pandemic. After a short, sharp slump in prices at the onset of the pandemic, with a decline of 5.8% in Q3 2020, prices started rising at the start of 2021, with a total increase of 18% between the trough of Q3 2020 and Q2 2023. Compared to the benchmarked period of Q1 2019, house prices increased by 14% according to the notaries, whilst asking prices rose by 18%, according to data from the property portal Idealista. Having risen for seven consecutive quarters since Q1 2021, often by double digits, the latest data from the notaries shows sales prices falling by 0.5% in Q1, and 2.7% in Q2, whilst asking prices from Idealista
show vendor expectations accelerating to a 7.6% increase in Q2. Though not moving in lockstep, both indices trace a broadly similar curve of rising prices in the wake of the pandemic, which can be partly explained by rising demand coupled with a shortage of homes for sale in the big cities and urban areas that dominate the market. Looking further back using data from the notaries based on actual sales, the average national house price has risen by 25% over the last decade, with big regional variations such as a 78% increase in the Balearics, and 51% increase in Madrid. Overall, the Spanish house price trend in recent years has been steadily upwards, a small dip at the start of the pandemic notwithstanding.
0%
SALES PRICES
-5
-10% Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016 Q3 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018 Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021 Q1 2022 Q3 2022
Q1 2023 Q2 2023
SPANISH HOUSE PRICES INDEX Source: Notaries
130
120
110
100
90
80 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016 Q3 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018 Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021 Q1 2022 Q3 2022
Q1 2023 Q2 2023
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
MORTGAGE LENDING
SPANISH NEW MORTGAGE LENDING Source: Notaries
a slump in new mortgage lending when compared to the period before the post- pandemic boom. However, it is too early to say that higher interest rates and borrowing costs will not reduce home sales significantly in the coming quarters, especially in the middle and lower segments of the market where financing is crucial to demand. Until now we have seen the rate hike impact more local and national buyers, whereas sales transactions to international buyers have increased so far this year.
The European Central Bank (ECB) held down interest rates to help the economy in response to the pandemic, which contributed significantly to the boom in sales and prices. However high inflation in 2022 led to a dramatic change in the interest rate environment. 12-month Euribor (the reference for most mortgages in Spain) rose from -0.232% in March 2022 to 3.647% in March this year (and 4% by the end of June). New mortgage lending fell by 25% in the same period, but remains strong compared to the years before the pandemic. The data shows that higher borrowing costs have not translated into
100,000
150%
75,000
100%
50,000
50%
25,000
0%
0
-50%
Q2 2023
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Q2 2016
Q2 2017
Q2 2018
Q2 2019
Q2 2020
Q2 2021
Q2 2022
EURIBOR Source: Bank of Spain
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
Q2 2023
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Q2 2016
Q2 2017
Q2 2018
Q2 2019
Q2 2020
Q2 2021
Q2 2022
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
FOREIGN BUYERS
Foreign demand has been the most dynamic segment of the Spanish property market in the wake of the Coronavirus, which appears to have stimulated the interest of buyers from abroad. Spain has attracted new buyers from around the world with its healthy climate and admired quality-of-life as many people reevaluated their priorities in the light of the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, there was a dramatic slump in the number of foreign buyers at the start of the pandemic, and foreign demand took longer to recover than local demand
due to international travel restrictions in place for most of 2021. In 2022, however, foreign demand took off and hit a record high of 26,728 sales in Q3 last year. 2022 was also the best year ever, with 95,000 homes bought by non-Spaniards. This year has started with a first-half record of 46,000 transactions involving a foreign buyer, up by almost 1% on last year, whilst local demand fell by 5.5%. Since 2019 foreign demand has increased by 42% compared to a 15% increase in local demand. As a result, the market share of
foreign buyers reached 14.7% of the overall Spanish market in the first half, not far off the all-time high of 15.3% in the second half of last year. Although the latest figures from the Land Registrars’ association suggest that foreign demand is cooling down after last year’s blistering growth there is no sign yet that foreign investors are losing their appetite for homes in Spain to any significant degree. 2023 could be another impressive year in terms of foreign buyers if growth in the first half is maintained for the rest of the year.
FOREIGN SALES AND FOREIGN MARKET SHARE (FMS) Source: Registrars
30,000
20%
FMS %
15%
20,000
10%
10,000
5%
0
0% Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
FOREIGN DEMAND: MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY, H1 2023 Source: Land Registrars Association
FOREIGN DEMAND BY NATIONALITY
By nationality, the UK was once again the biggest market in the first half with 9.1% of all purchases involving a foreign buyer, followed by Germany with a 7.4% market share, and France with 6.9%. Growth varied significantly by country, with Germany retrenching 20%, and the UK 15%, whilst Italy increased by 22% and France by 2%. Eleven of the seventeen markets itemised by the land registrars showed an annualised increase in sales, with a notable jump in buyers from the US, who almost doubled.
8
9
6
1
5
7
3
11
2
4
10
UK GERMANY FRANCE ITALY BELGIUM NETHERLANDS POLAND RUSSIA SWEDEN CHINA UKRAINE REST
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
9.1% 7.4% 6.9% 5.3% 5.2% 4.7% 3.6% 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 44.8%
10. 11. 12.
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
THE PRIME MARKET
PRIME PROPERTY SALES BY LOCATION Total Lucas Fox sales of €2.5m or more. H1 2023
PRIME PROPERTY SALES BY PROVENANCE OF BUYER Total Lucas Fox sales of €2.5m or more. H1 2023
2
1
DEMAND FOR PRIME PROPERTY
2
6
1
3
4
3
Our experience as one of the leaders in the prime and super-prime segment servicing both local and foreign clients suggests there was a substantial increase during the first half in demand for prime property with a price tag of €2.5m or more. Lucas Fox sales in this segment increased by 10% in the first semester, with transactions up by 43% in Barcelona, by 50% in Ibiza and Madrid, and doubling in the Costa Brava. The average price of our prime property sales increased by 41%, and the value of those sales by 54%. These results reflect the confidence and robust purchasing power of upmarket buyers, who are less dependent on mortgage financing, and can take rising interest rates in their stride. Buyers in the prime market are also less sensitive to rising prices than is the case in other segments, and guided more by confidence in their investments than price and financing considerations.
5
4
7
5
43.5% 17.4% 13.0% 13.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
BARCELONA CITY COSTA BRAVA MADRID & SUBURBS IBIZA VALENCIA CITY MARESME COSTA BLANCA
60.9% 17.4% 8.7% 8.7% 4.3%
EU EUROPE (NON EU) FAR EAST NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
THE SUPPLY OF PRIME PROPERTY
According to our research, the first half ended with approximately 13,300 prime properties listed for sale* in Spain and Andorra with a price tag of €2.5m or more, almost 2% of the overall supply of 650,000 homes on the market. The supply of prime properties is highly concentrated in a few Spanish regions, with 97% of the offer located in just 9 provinces (out of 50) plus Andorra.
Malaga province in Andalusia, home to Spain’s flagship upmarket seaside resort Marbella, has the biggest supply of prime properties for sale with 4,413, followed closely by the Balearics with 4,327, and Madrid some way behind with 1,238. The prime segment was 15% of the local market in the Balearics, 9% in Malaga, 3% in Madrid, and less than 1% in 80% of Spanish provinces.
*@ Idealista
PRIME PROPERTY STOCK BY TOP TEN LOCATIONS Prime stock for sale (price €2.5m or more) broken down by provinces and Andorra. Source: Idealista
9
6
4
3
33.2% 32.5%
MÁLAGA BALEARICS MADRID BARCELONA ALICANTE GIRONA CÁDIZ TENERIFE ANDORRA REST
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
2
9.3% 6.7% 6.6% 3.4% 2.3% 1.8% 0.9% 3.2%
5
1
7
8
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
BUYER PROFILE
An overview of our buyer profile in the first half of 2023 based on newly created sales contracts for all our markets offers a unique insight into the profile of upmarket buyers in Spain. This buyer profile reflects our upmarket and regional positioning, and is not representative of the wider market.
SALES BY AREA TYPE, H1 2023 Source: Lucas Fox company data
SALES BY PROPERTY TYPE, H1 2023 Source: Lucas Fox company data
SALES BY PURCHASE REASON, H1 2023 Source: Lucas Fox company data
CITY
APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE
PRIMARY RESIDENCE
47.5%
55.2%
46.7%
COAST
HOUSE/VILLA
SECOND HOME
32.4%
34.9%
33.2%
SUBURBS
COUNTRY HOUSE
INVESTMENT
7.4
5.5%
14.0%
LOCAL VS FOREIGN SALES, H1 2023 Source: Lucas Fox company data
COUNTRY
PLOT
GOLDEN VISA
5.5%
3.3%
3.3%
ISLAND
UNKNOWN
4.1%
2.7%
LOCAL 34.1%
MOUNTAINS
3.0%
FOREIGN 65.9%
SALES BY AREA TYPE AND AVERAGE BUDGET, H1 2023 Source: Lucas Fox company data
2,000,000
Area type
1,709,790 1,001,278 1,147,893 1,154,984 H1 2022 av. price
Area type
1,912,911 1,355,090 1,347,074 H1 2023 av. price
Y-O-Y
1,500,000
11.9% 17.3% 17.4% -8.3% 0.1% -7.0%
Island City Suburbs Mountains Coast Country
Island City Suburrbs Mountains Coast Country
1,000,000
500,000
918,455 907,599 804,250
907,036 865,179
0
ISLAND
CITY
SUBURBS
MOUNTAINS
COAST
COUNTRY
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023
NORTH SPAIN / P. 47
Interactive document
LA CERDANYA & ANDORRA / P. 51
GIRONA CITY & THE COSTA BRAVA / P. 23
BARCELONA CITY & SUBURBS / P. 15
GARRAF & MARESME COASTS / P. 19
TARRAGONA CITY & THE COSTA DORADA / P. 27
This section analyses the property market in areas serviced by Lucas Fox looking at sales, asking prices, and the trend in both since the start of 2019. An index showing the change in prices and sales since the first quarter of 2019 is illustrated with gauges that make comparison of areas within the same territory easy, and benchmarks the latest results against the last normal year before the pandemic. Our buyer profiles for each area are not representative of the wider market but do provide insight into upmarket segments in the regions we service. REGIONAL SECTIONS
MADRID CITY & SUBURBS / P. 43
VALENCIA CITY, ALICANTE & COSTA BLANCA / P. 35
IBIZA & MENORCA / P. 31
SEVILLE, MÁLAGA, & THE COSTA DEL SOL / P. 39
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Barcelona City & suburbs
BARCELONA CITY & SUBURBS
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Barcelona City & suburbs
BARCELONA CITY & SUBURBS SALES INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA
BARCELONA CITY
100
104.1
50
150
SALES
Q1 sales 4,009
Y-O-Y -4%
Trend
BARCELONA CITY
SANT CUGAT 4,009 175
First quarter sales in the city were down 4% compared to last year, but up 4% compared to 2019, whilst sales in the suburbs fell significantly with the demise of the pandemic-related trend away from city-centres towards the suburbs. Compared to 2019, the index in Sant Cugat was 68.4 and in Sant Just Desvern was 90.9, which means that sales were down 31.6% and 9.1% respectively.
SANT CUGAT
100
68.4
50
150
Trend
Q1 sales 175
Y-O-Y -29%
SANT JUST DESVERN
40
SANT JUST DESVERN
90.9
100
50
150
Trend
Q1 sales 40
Y-O-Y -56%
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Barcelona City & suburbs
PRICES
Asking prices in Barcelona city increased 2.5% year-on-year in Q2 to end 2% lower than the start of 2019 despite staging a recovery from the lows of the pandemic. In the Eixample area prices performed better, ending the first half 2% higher than in the start of 2019. Rent control policies in the
city that depressed rental investment and increased the number of vendors may have contributed to Barcelona’s lacklustre price performance since 2019. In the upmarket suburbs of Sant Cugat and Sant Just Desvern prices were 18.7% and 5.4% higher than in 2019 respectively.
BARCELONA CITY & SUBURBS ASKING PRICE INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista
BARCELONA CITY
EIXAMPLE
98.0
102.0
100
100
50
150
50
150
€/sqm 4,131
Y-O-Y 2.5%
Trend
€/sqm 4,891
Y-O-Y 2.8%
Trend
SANT CUGAT
SANT JUST DESVERN
100
100
105.4
118.7
50
150
50
150
Trend
Trend
€/sqm 4,165
Y-O-Y 3.3%
€/sqm 3,683
Y-O-Y 2.0%
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Barcelona City & suburbs
BUYER PROFILE
H1 2023, Source: Lucas Fox data
AGREED PRICE
Av. price 1,620,801
Av. discount
Av. price Y-O-Y
Barcelona city Barcelona suburbs
-4.05%
49.5%
827,067
-5.49%
18.2%
Created sales contracts, average agreed price, average difference between asking and closing price, and annualised change in average agred price.
BUYER PROVENANCE
PURCHASE REASON AND PROPERTY TYPE
Barcelona city
65% 16% 14% 5% 97% 3%
PRIMARY RESIDENCE INVESTMENT
SECOND HOME GOLDEN VISA
APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE HOUSE/VILLA
EU EUROPE (NON EU) NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA FAR EAST ASIA NORTH AFRICA
52.3% 19.7% 12.1% 6.1% 3.8% 3.0% 1.5%
Barcelona suburbs
PRIMARY RESIDENCE
100%
APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE HOUSE/VILLA
60% 40%
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Barcelona Maresme & Garraf coasts
BARCELONA MARESME & GARRAF COASTS
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Barcelona Maresme & Garraf coasts
GARRAF & MARESME COAST SALES INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA
GARRAF
100%
113.7
SALES
50%
150%
Q1 sales 782
Y-O-Y -2%
Trend
Q1 sales in the Garraf coast municipalities analysed for this report were almost unchanged in a year, and ended up 14% higher than 2019. On the Maresme coast north of Barcelona, where the pandemic trend to the suburbs has abated, sales are significantly down both compared to last year and 2019.
GARRAF 782 MARESME 464
MARESME
100%
68.6
50%
150%
Q1 sales 464
Y-O-Y -26%
Trend
Maresme municipalities analysed: Alella, Cabrera de Mar, Cabrils, Mataró, Montgat, Premià de Dalt, Sant Andreu de Llavaneres, Sant Vicenç de Montalt, Teià, Tiana, Vallromanes
Garraf municipalities analysed: Castelldefels, Gavà, Sitges, Vilanova i la Geltrú
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Barcelona Maresme & Garraf coasts
PRICES
MARESME COAST ASKING PRICE INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista
ALELLA
Asking prices on both the Garraf and Maresme coasts have risen since 2019, with almost no decline during the pandemic in municipalities like
Vilanova on the Garraf coast, and Alella on the Maresme coast, where strong demand supported prices as soon as lockdowns were lifted.
100%
115.3
50%
150%
€/sqm 2,902
Y-O-Y 1.6%
Trend
GARRAF COAST ASKING PRICE INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista
MATARÓ
CASTELLDEFELS
GAVÀ MAR
100%
100%
100%
102.1
104.3
116.8
50%
150%
50%
150%
50%
150%
€/sqm 2,122
Y-O-Y 1.9%
Trend
€/sqm 3,559
Y-O-Y 1.8%
Trend
€/sqm 5,112
Y-O-Y 7.5%
Trend
TEIA 100%
SITGES
VILANOVA I LA GELTRÚ
100%
100%
113.8
123.8
122.9
50%
150%
50%
150%
50%
150%
€/sqm 2,873
Y-O-Y 0.1%
Trend
Trend
€/sqm 4,260
Y-O-Y 5.3%
€/sqm 2,379
Y-O-Y 3.9%
Trend
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Barcelona Maresme & Garraf coasts
BUYER PROFILE
H1 2023, Source: Lucas Fox data
AGREED PRICE
Av. price 1,098,824
Av. discount
Av. price Y-O-Y
Maresme Garraf
-9%
-60%
708,988
-9%
-15%
Created sales contracts, average agreed price, average difference between asking and closing price, and annualised change in average agred price.
BUYER PROVENANCE
PURCHASE REASON AND PROPERTY TYPE
Maresme
65% 24% 12% 65% 18% 12% 6% 47% 37% 10% 7% 47% 40% 10% 3%
PRIMARY RESIDENCE SECOND HOME INVESTMENT HOUSE/VILLA PLOT COUNTRY HOUSE APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE
EU EUROPE (NON EU) NORTH AMERICA OCEANIA MIDDLE EAST LATIN AMERICA FAR EAST ASIA
66.0% 17.0%
6.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Garraf
PRIMARY RESIDENCE SECOND HOME
INVESTMENT GOLDEN VISA
HOUSE/VILLA APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE COUNTRY HOUSE PLOT
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Girona Province & The Costa Brava
GIRONA & THE COSTA BRAVA
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Girona Province & The Costa Brava
GIRONA CITY & COSTA BRAVA SALES INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA
COSTA BRAVA & EMPORDÀ
100%
111.2
50%
150%
SALES
Q1 sales 1,237
Y-O-Y -11%
Trend
COSTA BRAVA 1,237 296 GIRONA CITY
Sales in Girona city and the municipalities of the Costa Brava and Empordà analysed in this report paint a similar picture of sales down just over 10% in a year, and up by a similar amount since 2019.
GIRONA CITY
100%
113.0
50%
150%
Q1 sales 296
Y-O-Y -12%
Trend
Costa Brava & Empordà municipalities analysed: Begur, Blanes, Cadaqués, Calonge, Castell-Platja d’Aro, L’Escala, Llagostera, Lloret de Mar, Palafrugell, Palamós, Pals, Sant Feliu de Guíxols, Santa Cristina d’Aro, Torroella de Montgrí
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Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Girona Province & The Costa Brava
PRICES
Asking prices in all municipalities were up around 5% in a year, and between 10% in Girona city and 23% in Begur since 2019.
GIRONA CITY & COSTA BRAVA ASKING PRICE INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista
BEGUR
CASTELL-PLATJA D’ARO
100%
100%
115.1
123.3
50%
150%
50%
150%
€/sqm 3,361
Y-O-Y 4.2%
Trend
€/sqm 3,296
Y-O-Y 5.5%
Trend
GIRONA CITY
PALS 100%
100%
110.0
111.0
50%
150%
50%
150%
Trend
Trend
€/sqm 2,339
Y-O-Y 5.7%
€/sqm 2,551
Y-O-Y 5.3%
www.lucasfox.com
25
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Girona Province & The Costa Brava
BUYER PROFILE
H1 2023, Source: Lucas Fox data
AGREED PRICE
PURCHASE REASON AND PROPERTY TYPE
Av. price 1,200,000
Av. discount
Av. price Y-O-Y
Girona city Costa Brava Empordà
Girona city
-4.%
108%
SECOND HOME HOUSE/VILLA
100% 100%
1,147,548
-8%
25%
941,786
-7%
6%
Created sales contracts, average agreed price, average difference between asking and closing price, and annualised change in average agred price.
Costa Brava
SECOND HOME PRIMARY RESIDENCE INVESTMENT HOUSE/VILLA PLOT APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE COUNTRY HOUSE OTHER
87% 6% 6% 74% 13%
BUYER PROVENANCE
6% 3% 3%
Empordà
64% 29% 7% 64% 36%
SECOND HOME PRIMARY RESIDENCE INVESTMENT
COUNTRY HOUSE HOUSE/VILLA
EU NORTH AMERICA EUROPE (NON EU) LATIN AMERICA
76.1% 10.9% 10.9% 2.2%
www.lucasfox.com
26
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Tarragona & The Costa Dorada
TARRAGONA & THE COSTA DORADA
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27
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Tarragona & The Costa Dorada
TARRAGONA CITY & COSTA DORADA SALES INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA
COSTA DORADA
100%
128.7
SALES
50%
150%
Q1 sales 893
Y-O-Y 22%
Trend
COSTA DORADA TARRAGONA CITY 893 535
Sales in the Costa Dorada municipalities analysed for this report were strong in Q1, up 22%, but soft in the provincial capital Tarragona, where they fell 13% compared to last year. In both areas, however, sales were significantly higher than 2019.
TARRAGONA CITY
100%
136.8
50%
150%
Q1 sales 535
Y-O-Y -13%
Trend
Costa Dorada municipalities analysed: Altafulla, L’Ametlla de Mar, Calafell, Cunit, Salou, El Vendrell
www.lucasfox.com
28
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Tarragona & The Costa Dorada
PRICES
Asking prices increased year-on-year in almost all municipalities and Tarragona city, ending Q1 significantly higher than 2019 in all areas.
TARRAGONA CITY & COSTA DORADA ASKING PRICE INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista
TARRAGONA CITY
EL VENDRELL
100%
100%
108.8
111.7
50%
150%
50%
150%
€/sqm 1,851
Y-O-Y 4.2%
Trend
€/sqm 1,533
Y-O-Y 3.2%
Trend
SALOU
EL CATLLAR
100%
100%
113.0
124.6
50%
150%
50%
150%
Trend
Trend
€/sqm 2,038
Y-O-Y 9.9%
€/sqm 1,546
Y-O-Y -1.3%
www.lucasfox.com
29
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Tarragona & The Costa Dorada
BUYER PROFILE
H1 2023, Source: Lucas Fox data
AGREED PRICE
Av. price 1,041,667
Av. discount
Av. price Y-O-Y
Tarragona city Costa Dorada
-7%
21%
312,500
-6%
54%
Created sales contracts, average agreed price, average difference between asking and closing price, and annualised change in average agred price.
BUYER PROVENANCE
PURCHASE REASON AND PROPERTY TYPE
Tarragona city
UNKNOWN
100%
HOUSE/VILLA APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE
67% 33%
Costa Dorada
EU NORTH AMERICA
80.0% 20.0%
50% 50%
PRIMARY RESIDENCE UNKNOWN
100%
HOUSE/VILLA
www.lucasfox.com
30
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Ibiza & Menorca
IBIZA & MENORCA
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31
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Ibiza & Menorca
IBIZA & MENORCA SALES INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA
IBIZA 100%
SALES
92.6
Year-on-year, sales declined significantly in both Ibiza and Menorca (Minorca) to end the first quarter, with little change since 2019. An acute shortage of property for sale in the Balearics has reduced sales and increased prices, whilst efforts by the previous regional government to exclude foreigners from the housing market may also have contributed to the decline in sales. In contrast to general market performance, we see our own Lucas Fox Ibiza office recording its strongest year of sales ever.
50%
150%
IBIZA MENORCA 390 418
Q1 sales 390
Y-O-Y -34%
Trend
MENORCA
100%
101.2
50%
150%
Q1 sales 418
Y-O-Y -25%
Trend
www.lucasfox.com
32
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Ibiza & Menorca
PRICES
Despite falling sales, asking prices increased significantly over 12 months to end the first semester and compared to 2019. This was largely due to a shortage of properties for sale.
IBIZA & MENORCA ASKING PRICE INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista
CIUTADELLA
IBIZA CITY
100%
100%
110.0
129.0
50%
150%
50%
150%
€/sqm 2,808
Y-O-Y 13.2%
Trend
€/sqm 5,691
Y-O-Y 6.8%
Trend
MAHÓN CITY
SANTA EULALIA DEL RÍO
100%
100%
130.9
132.2
50%
150%
50%
150%
Trend
Trend
€/sqm 2,558
Y-O-Y 12.3%
€/sqm 6,394
Y-O-Y 11.4%
www.lucasfox.com
33
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Ibiza & Menorca
BUYER PROFILE
H1 2023, Source: Lucas Fox data
AGREED PRICE
Av. price 2,366,330
Av. discount
Av. price Y-O-Y
Ibiza Menorca
-3%
-13%
1,006,072
-9%
85%
Created sales contracts, average agreed price, average difference between asking and closing price, and annualised change in average agred price.
BUYER PROVENANCE
PURCHASE REASON AND PROPERTY TYPE
Ibiza
INVESTMENT PRIMARY RESIDENCE SECOND HOME APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE HOUSE/VILLA COUNTRY HOUSE PLOT
50% 40% 10% 50% 30% 10% 10%
EU EUROPE (NON EU) NORTH AMERICA
73.3% 20.0% 6.7%
Menorca
SECOND HOME PRIMARY RESIDENCE
60% 40%
100%
HOUSE/VILLA
www.lucasfox.com
34
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Valencia & The Costa Blanca
VALENCIA & THE COSTA BLANCA
www.lucasfox.com
35
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Valencia & The Costa Blanca
VALENCIA CITY, ALICANTE & COSTA BLANCA SALES INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA
VALENCIA CITY
ALICANTE CITY
100%
100%
104.4
124.4
SALES
50%
150%
50%
150%
Q1 sales 3,162
Y-O-Y 3%
Trend
Q1 sales 1,745
Y-O-Y -8%
Trend
Despite a year-on-year decline in Alicante city and the Marina Alta region, sales growth in the municipalities analysed for this report was some of the strongest in Spain since 2019.
MARINA ALTA
MARINA BAJA
VALENCIA CITY 3,612
100%
100%
137.1
143.2
50%
150%
50%
150%
Q1 sales 1,252
Y-O-Y -7%
Trend
Q1 sales 1,358
Y-O-Y 17%
Trend
Marina Alta municipalities analysed: Benissa, Benitachell, Calp, Dénia, Jávea Marina Baja analysed: Alfaz del Pi, Altea, Benidorm, Finestrat, Villajoyosa
www.lucasfox.com
36
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Valencia & The Costa Blanca
PRICES
Asking prices have risen significantly in most areas since 2019, and were still rising by double digits in Q2, with the exception of Javea (5%).
VALENCIA CITY, ALICANTE & COSTA BLANCA ASKING PRICE INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista
VALENCIA CITY
ALICANTE CITY
CALPE
100%
100%
100%
124.1
128.3
140.8
50%
150%
50%
150%
50%
150%
€/sqm 2,226
Y-O-Y 11.1%
Trend
€/sqm 1,789
Y-O-Y 15.6%
Trend
€/sqm 2,789
Y-O-Y 15.1%
Trend
DÉNIA
JÁVEA
100%
100%
125.5
130.1
50%
150%
50%
150%
Trend
Trend
€/sqm 2,479
Y-O-Y 13.2%
€/sqm 2,928
Y-O-Y 5.0%
www.lucasfox.com
37
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Valencia & The Costa Blanca
BUYER PROFILE
H1 2023, Source: Lucas Fox data
AGREED PRICE
PURCHASE REASON AND PROPERTY TYPE
Av. price 723,548
Av. discount
Av. price Y-O-Y
Valencia city Alicante city Costa Blanca
Valencia city
-4.%
63%
46% 25% 18% 11% 82% 18%
PRIMARY RESIDENCE SECOND HOME
625,000
-8%
41%
INVESTMENT GOLDEN VISA
829,862
-4%
13%
Created sales contracts, average agreed price, average difference between asking and closing price, and annualised change in average agred price.
APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE HOUSE/VILLA
Alicante city
BUYER PROVENANCE
50% 50% 50% 50%
PRIMARY RESIDENCE INVESTMENT
APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE HOUSE/VILLA
Costa Blanca
69% 17% 10% 3% 62% 31%
SECOND HOME PRIMARY RESIDENCE INVESTMENT UNKNOWN HOUSE/VILLA APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE COUNTRY HOUSE PLOT
EU EUROPE (NON EU) NORTH AMERICA OCEANIA ASIA
52.5% 27.1% 11.9% 3.4% 1.7%
3% 3%
www.lucasfox.com
38
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Seville, Málaga & The Costa del Sol
SEVILLE, MÁLAGA, & THE COSTA DEL SOL
www.lucasfox.com
39
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Seville, Málaga & The Costa del Sol
MÁLAGA, COSTA DEL SOL & SEVILLE SALES INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA
MÁLAGA CITY
98.2
100%
50%
150%
Q1 sales 1,795
Y-O-Y -16%
Trend
SALES
MÁLAGA CITY 1,795
SEVILLE CITY
100%
Q1 sales were still rising year-on-year in the Andalusian capital Seville, but falling in Malaga city and key municipalities of the Costa del Sol. Compared to 2019, sales volumes were almost unchanged in Malaga city, and around 20% higher in Seville and the Costa del Sol.
119.8
SEVILLE CITY 2,530 4,751 COSTA DEL SOL
50%
150%
Trend
Q1 sales 2,530
Y-O-Y 4%
WEST COSTA DEL SOL
100%
121.4
50%
150%
Trend
Q1 sales 4,751
Y-O-Y -19%
West Costa del Sol municipalities analysed: Benalmádena, Casares, Estepona, Fuengirola, Manilva, Marbella, Mijas, Torremolinos
www.lucasfox.com
40
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Seville, Málaga & The Costa del Sol
PRICES
Asking prices have continued rising strongly in most areas, adding to gains accumulated since 2019. In Marbella, the flagship resort of the Costa del Sol, the accumulated gain since 2019 was 52.5%, one of the highest in Spain.
MÁLAGA, COSTA DEL SOL & SEVILLE ASKING PRICE INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista
MÁLAGA CITY
SEVILLE CITY
MARBELLA
100%
100%
100%
107.1
124.8
50%
150%
50%
150%
50%
152.5 150%
€/sqm 2,516
Y-O-Y 12.6%
Trend
€/sqm 2,181
Y-O-Y 6.1%
Trend
€/sqm 4,233
Y-O-Y 14.2%
Trend
ESTEPONA
BENAHAVÍS
100%
100%
140.8
148.6
50%
150%
50%
150%
Trend
Trend
€/sqm 3,085
Y-O-Y 15.7%
€/sqm 4,086
Y-O-Y 6.9%
www.lucasfox.com
41
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Seville, Málaga & The Costa del Sol
BUYER PROFILE
H1 2023, Source: Lucas Fox data
AGREED PRICE
PURCHASE REASON AND PROPERTY TYPE
Av. price 837,500
Av. discount
Av. price Y-O-Y
Málaga city Seville city Costa del Sol
Málaga city
-10%
-6%
44% 44% 11% 56% 33% 11%
PRIMARY RESIDENCE INVESTMENT SECOND HOME
472,500
-12%
-10%
744,273
-4%
-51%
HOUSE/VILLA APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE COUNTRY HOUSE
Created sales contracts, average agreed price, average difference between asking and closing price, and annualised change in average agred price.
Seville city
BUYER PROVENANCE
50% 25% 25%
SECOND HOME PRIMARY RESIDENCE INVESTMENT APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE
100%
Costa del Sol
73% 18% 9% 45% 36% 18%
SECOND HOME PRIMARY RESIDENCE INVESTMENT
EU EUROPE (NON EU)
79.2% 20.8%
APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE HOUSE/VILLA COUNTRY HOUSE
www.lucasfox.com
42
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Madrid City & suburbs
MADRID CITY & SUBURBS
www.lucasfox.com
43
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Madrid City & suburbs
MADRID CITY & NW SUBURBS SALES INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA
MADRID CITY
97.2
100%
SALES
50%
150%
Q1 sales 10,095
Y-O-Y -20%
Trend
MADRID CITY NORTHWEST SUBURBS 10,095 1,350
Q1 sales in Madrid city and the northwest suburbs favoured by upmarket buyers fell significantly more than the national average, ending the quarter below 2019. Sales in the suburbs, in particular, have retrenched with the end of the pandemic.
MADRID NW SUBURBS
100%
87.8
50%
150%
Q1 sales 1,350
Y-O-Y -32%
Trend
Madrid NW suburb municipalities analysed: Alcobendas, Boadilla del Monte, Colmenar Viejo, Majadahonda, Pozuelo de Alarcón, Las Rozas de Madrid, San Sebastián de los Reyes, Villaviciosa de Odón
www.lucasfox.com
44
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Madrid City & suburbs
PRICES
Despite falling sales, asking prices continue to rise, and the northwest suburbs have not given up the gains made since 2019.
MADRID CITY & NW SUBURBS ASKING PRICE INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista
MADRID CITY
POZUELO DE ALARCÓN
MAJADAHONDA
BOADILLA DEL MONTE
100%
100%
100%
100%
107.9
114.3
118.8
124.7
50%
150%
50%
150%
50%
150%
50%
150%
€/sqm 4,015
Y-O-Y 4.0%
Trend
€/sqm 3,530
Y-O-Y 2.6%
Trend
€/sqm 3,637
Y-O-Y 3.1%
Trend
Trend
€/sqm 2,896
Y-O-Y 6.5%
LAS ROZAS
LA MORALEJA
CIUDALCAMPO
100%
100%
100%
121.0
125.4
132.1
50%
150%
50%
150%
50%
150%
Trend
€/sqm 3,116
Y-O-Y 8.5%
Trend
€/sqm 5,357
Y-O-Y 2.5%
Trend
€/sqm 2,964
Y-O-Y 2.5%
www.lucasfox.com
45
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / Madrid City & suburbs
BUYER PROFILE
H1 2023, Source: Lucas Fox data
AGREED PRICE
Av. price 1,059,444
Av. discount
Av. price Y-O-Y
Madrid city Madrid suburbs
-3%
-16%
1,997,083
-6%
49%
Created sales contracts, average agreed price, average difference between asking and closing price, and annualised change in average agred price.
BUYER PROVENANCE
PURCHASE REASON AND PROPERTY TYPE
Madrid city
44% 33% 11% 11% 78% 22%
PRIMARY RESIDENCE SECOND HOME GOLDEN VISA UNKNOWN APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE HOUSE/VILLA
EU LATIN AMERICA OCEANIA NORTH AMERICA MIDDLE EAST EUROPE (NON EU)
66.7% 14.3%
4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
Madrid suburbs
67% 17% 17% 83%
PRIMARY RESIDENCE SECOND HOME UNKNOWN HOUSE/VILLA APARTMENT/PENTHOUSE PLOT
8% 8%
www.lucasfox.com
46
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / North Spain
NORTH SPAIN
www.lucasfox.com
47
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / North Spain
NORTH SPAIN SALES INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA
SAN SEBASTIÁN
100%
SALES
64.1
50%
150%
Market sales in northern regions show a varied performance with a decline in San Sebastián (Basque Country), where sales ended the quarter 36% below their 2019 level. In Pontevedra (Galicia) sales were higher than in 2019.
SAN SEBASTIÁN PONTEVEDRA 355 1,638
Q1 sales 355
Y-O-Y -34%
Trend
PONTEVEDRA
100%
111.3
50%
150%
Trend
Q1 sales 1,638
Y-O-Y -15%
www.lucasfox.com
48
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / North Spain
PRICES
Asking prices have continued to increase in all the areas analysed, consolidating gains made since 2019. In the case of San Sebastián, where sales prices were used, the index was 20% higher than 2019.
NORTH SPAIN ASKING PRICE INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: Idealista
SAN SEBASTIÁN
100%
120.2
50%
150%
€/sqm 5,191
Y-O-Y 2.3%
Trend
PONTEVEDRA
100%
106.9
50%
150%
Trend
€/sqm 1,599
Y-O-Y 2.1%
www.lucasfox.com
49
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / North Spain
BUYER PROFILE
H1 2023, Source: Lucas Fox data
PURCHASE REASON AND PROPERTY TYPE
AGREED PRICE
Av. price 398,750
Av. discount
Av. price Y-O-Y
Galicia inland
-8%
-26%
Galicia
50% 50% 75% 25%
PRIMARY RESIDENCE SECOND HOME HOUSE/VILLA OTHER
Created sales contracts, average agreed price, average difference between asking and closing price, and annualised change in average agred price.
BUYER PROVENANCE
EU NORTH AMERICA EUROPE (NON EU)
50.0% 25.0% 25.0%
www.lucasfox.com
50
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / La Cerdanya & Andorra
LA CERDANYA & ANDORRA
www.lucasfox.com
51
Lucas Fox Spanish Real Estate Market Report / First half 2023 / La Cerdanya & Andorra
CERDANYA & ANDORRA SALES INDEX BASE = Q1 2019 Source: MITMA / Govern d’Andorra
LA CERDANYA
100%
121.1
SALES
50%
150%
Q1 sales 109
Y-O-Y -4%
Trend
ANDORRA LA CERDANYA 417 109
Market sales in the Andorra and La Cerdanya (Catalonia) regions have slightly declined compared to last year but increased compared to 2019 with sales index increases of 8% and 21% respectively.
ANDORRA
100%
107.8
50%
150%
Q1 sales 417
Y-O-Y -13%
Trend
La Cerdanya municipalities analysed: Alp, Bellver de Cerdanya, Bolvir, Llivia, Puigcerdà
www.lucasfox.com
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