housing
PRE-SALE BUYERS LOOK FOR MORE VALUE The pre-sale market is one where developers share some of the risk and reward associated with development with their respective purchasers. And because buyers pay today, for a home to be delivered tomorrow, they want to see that values are increasing when they buy. So it makes sense then, that there is a strong correlation, and probably causation, between rising resale prices and pre-sale counts. This trend held true in 2015 and 2016 as rapidly rising resale prices lead to increased
pre-sale counts, and again from later 2020 to early 2022. The opposite is also true, when resale prices decline, pre-sale counts slow as well, as was most recently observed in the second half of 2022. In 2023, with interest rates elevated and a market struggling to stabilize, keeping an eye on resale prices is a reliable way to gauge when pre-sale activity will pick back up.
AS RESALE GOES, PRE-SALE FOLLOWS
0 3,000 2,000 1,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 8,000 7,000
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
PRESALE COUNTS
QUARTEROVERQUARTER BENCHMARK PRICE CHANGE CONDOS
SOURCE: REBGV, FVREB, & ZONDA URBAN DATA: QUARTERLY, METRO VANCOUVER
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