BERNSTEIN ON BOXING
Subriel Matias vs. Dalton Smith is a world title fight to savor.
for a title don’t come easily. A loss could set him back significantly. Matias victims like Jeremias Ponce, Shohjahon Ergashev and Batyr Jukembayev never quite regained their top contender status after losing in dramatic fashion to Matias. No one, however, will ever suggest that Smith lacks self-belief. A career of success fuels that. So he feels the scenario that befell those other fighters is unlikely for him. He calls himself a “nightmare matchup” for Matias. Matias was considered the boogeyman of the 140-pound division after he won the vacant IBF title against Ponce and defended it against Ergashev in violent, thrilling fights in 2023. Then the upset loss to Paro burst that bubble. Even his WBC title-winning effort against Alberto Puello did not put to rest the idea that the boogeyman label was no longer appropriate. He gave us a glimpse of that “old” Matias in a win over talented contender Gabriel Valenzuela in a thrilling match earlier in 2025. If defending a world title is not enough of a motivation for Matias, there is also an important marketing goal. To enhance his status and improve his commerce in boxing, he wants and perhaps needs to produce a winning effort that harkens back to his exciting past. Some wonder if, at age 33, after some hellacious wars, he is still a feared 140-pounder. 3. The Fight. About 75% of the reason I chose to write about this match as opposed to others is simply the delicious nature of this matchup. Usually when you really, really, really think a match will be very good, it ends up being very good. Most people who know boxing really, really, really think this one will be very good. I have announced six of the last nine fights of Matias. I love announcing his matches because I usually know exactly what will happen and it allows me to
be prepared. Yes, they are predictable, but in a wildly exciting way. First of all, he loses the first round – almost always. Oftentimes he loses the first round really badly. And sometimes, like in the Ponce and Ergashev fights, it looks like he might not make it to Round 2. But he always does. Then, in Round 2 or 3, no matter what kind of beating he took, he starts to take over the fight. Most fighters simply can’t resist battering Matias in the first round, luring themselves into a slugfest, which is what he wants. The men who have done well against Matias have done so with guile more than strength. Paro’s win and Puello’s close decision loss were fashioned from not taking the bait early. They both won the first round easily but did so while boxing and starting to create an off- tempo, in-and-out approach in which standing in the pocket for an extended period was not part of the plan. If you stand and trade with Matias, you will lose – at least it has been so to this point in his career. Smith is a power-puncher to be sure, but he has a measured offense until he feels he has a fighter hurt. Then he takes more risks. Now, that alone does not mean he will have success against Matias, because often fighters think they have him hurt and yet he ends up taking them out when they take too many risks. Smith’s previous work suggests he might have the discipline not to do that. The question will be whether Smith’s mobility allows him to employ lateral movement and change angles enough to keep the always forward-charging Matias off-balance – while Smith is providing offense of his own. Here is where things get really interesting. It is likely at some point this fight will reach a place where Smith is forced to trade. He is not a holder or a runner or an awkward boxer who creates an off-rhythm fight. He is the definition of a boxer-puncher. He has never faced a pressure fighter like Matias, not to mention a fighter on Matias’ level. He will at some point have do to battle. When that happens,
and depending how long it happens for, we will get the answer to two questions. First, is Smith the one who can do what other talented and dangerous fighters have not been able to do – hurt Matias enough in a firefight to win the match? That is quite possible. If it happened it would be partially due to Smith’s power and accuracy and partially due to the wear and tear on Matias from so many pitched battles. Second, should Smith have faced slightly better competition to prepare himself for this moment? Will the talent and power gulf between his previous opponents and Matias be too much? A couple of wild card strategy points: Smith often lunges in with his right hand, leaving himself open to a counter left hook. Matias has one of the best left hooks in boxing and can counter with it. Smith is such a good body puncher (as Jose Zepeda will attest to) that he could land something there against Matias that would materially change this fight. Perhaps my zeal for the Xs and Os of this fight come through to you. I hope so. This match is fascinating on many levels. Champions come and go quickly. Matias defended his IBF title once before losing it. He’ll try to better that with the WBC strap – which actually qualifies as a long title reign at 140. Consider this recent history: The WBA 140-pound title was won by Rolly Romero on May 15, 2023. He lost it in his first defense to Isaac Cruz, who lost it in HIS first defense to Jose Valenzuela, who promptly lost it in his very next fight to Gary Antuanne Russell. When Matias lost his IBF title after one defense to Liam Paro, the Australian fighter turned around and lost it in his first defense to Richardson Hitchins. Given all that, it is best for everyone to simply concentrate on the moment on January 10. Whether a successful title defense is made or yet another crown changes hands, we will see two quality fighters face each other in an almost can’t-miss battle. That is enough to give the first quarter of 2026 more than a fighting chance.
Commonwealth and European titles. He has the potential to be a world champion and a force in this division and maybe others for at least a half decade or more. Matchroom Boxing has carefully guided his career and he has in return done his part by winning impressively. It has been a straight line from amateur champ to prospect to contender – and now, they hope, champion. Only the machinations of boxing governing bodies have slowed the process. For the 33-year-old Matias, the path to this fight has been anything but a straight line. He is on his second go-around as a world titleholder. The career of this Puerto Rican whirlwind has been filled with drama inside and outside the ring. He has dealt with the death of a fighter he beat in the ring (Maxim Dadashev), an upset loss to Liam Paro in a match that his new promoter, Matchroom Boxing, set up as a homecoming coronation. Even getting to his boxing career was a difficult route, involving criminal activities as a youth that led to his suffering a gunshot wound and serving a prison term. But boxing changed that, and he now is a husband with three daughters and is a world titleholder who despite these ups and downs has dazzled boxing fans with his exciting style. 2. Smith’s mission statement in this fight is to show that he is THAT guy – the one that his steadfast promoter and legion of fans believe is destined to be a champion and one of Great Britain’s shining lights on the boxing stage. He goes into this match, however, untested by upper-echelon fighters in his weight class. In a division loaded with talent, these opportunities
EXPECT THE PREDICTABLE By Al Bernstein
T here are a number of solid matches on the docket for early in 2026. So it was a hard choice when I decided to do my column on a match that I see as kind of a North Star that would set boxing off in the right direction for its yearlong journey. It might be suggested that my neverending fascination (some might say obsession) with the junior welterweight division made my selection inevitable. I settled on the January 10 WBC 140-pound title match between beltholder Subriel Matias and challenger Dalton Smith. I think this fight embodies all of what we hope we will get more of in 2026. We look for a number of things in a match that makes us count down the days to the first bell. We want an interesting journey to the match, high
stakes for the winner and a fight that looks like it could be an all-action affair in the ring. And, let me throw in an additional enticement: While it is shown on a subscription platform, it is NOT a pay-per-view card. So it looks like the poster child of what boxing fans want more of in 2026. 1. The Journey. These fighters arrived at this match differently and find themselves at different points in their careers. For the 28-year-old Smith, this fight is his coming-out party on the world stage. The pride of Sheffield, England, has solid amateur credentials, then as a pro was unwavering in his march through the best that Europe can offer at 140 pounds – winning the British,
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