The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | November 2024
Celebrating 30 years in partnership
Global outlook - December 2024 to February 2025
US: The threat of protests will be elevated after Republican candidate Donald Trump won the 5 November presidential election. It will likely be particularly elevated around the presidential inauguration on 20 January 2025. Ecuador: Political violence is likely to increase around the general elections on 9 February 2025. Some National Assembly candidates in Esmeraldas, Guayas, El Oro and Manabí provinces will likely receive death threats or be attacked by organised criminal groups. Mexico: Organised criminal attacks on municipal officials increased in the previous quarter amid administration changes. Political violence will persist the remaining political transitions, especially in Guerrero, Chiapas and Veracruz states. Mozambique: Large protests and accompanying bouts of violent unrest are highly likely in the capital Maputo and other cities as the opposition continues to contest the results of the 9 October elections. Congo (DRC): A fragile ceasefire between the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group and the government will likely continue to hold in North Kivu province while mediation between DRC and Rwanda is ongoing. Chad: Renewed military operations against Islamist militant groups in the Lake Chad area are highly likely, potentially including operations in border areas of Cameroon and Nigeria.
Pakistan: Increased demand for heating will cause gas shortages in the coming months. This, coupled with continued power outages will drive localised protests, particularly in urban centres such as Karachi (Sindh province). Yemen: The Houthi rebel movement will likely continue to stage sporadic attacks on Israeli territory and maintain its campaign of attacks primarily targeting commercial vessels linked to the US, UK and Israel. Bangladesh: The security situation has improved since the resignation and exile of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August. However, the threat of violence against businesses owned by associates of Hasina or the Awami League will persist in the coming months. New Caledonia: France’s decision to suspend controversial voting reforms has stabilised the security environment. However, businesses in and around the capital Nouméa will remain exposed to the threat of retaliatory attacks by pro-independence groups. Philippines: Ahead of the May 2025 polls, election-related incidents (including attacks on candidates) are likely to increase, particularly at the local level where political rivalry is intense. Nevertheless, the security environment overall will remain stable.
France: Tense deliberations around the 2025 austerity budget highlight the difficulties that the new government will face in passing legislation, and its reliance on the far-right. This, alongside austerity plans and cost of living concerns, will drive civil unrest. Germany: There will likely be snap elections in February 2025. Meanwhile, the foiling of a sophisticated far-right extremist coup d’etat plot, the fourth in several years, highlights the sustained threat from far-right extremism.
Ukraine/Russia: Fighting will likely continue at high intensity in the coming months as Russia will likely seek to press its tactical advantage. Moreover, Moscow will likely bank on reduced Western support for Ukraine after Donald Trump won the US presidential election. Israel/Palestinian Territories: As the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas continues, the intent of self-radicalised individuals to launch unsophisticated attacks in and around Israel’s large urban centres will intensify.
Outlook
Romania
Ghana
Chad
US
Belarus
Ecuador
Germany
Global
1 December Legislative elections
7 December General elections
29 December Parliamentary and local elections
20 January Presidential inauguration
26 January Presidential elections
9 February General elections
23 February Federal elections
28 February – 30 March Muslim holy month of Ramadan
03
Copyright © Control Risks – Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online