The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | November 2024
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Focus on: Sabotage risk in Europe
The war in Ukraine has driven an escalation in Russian hybrid tactics aimed at undermining the political resolve of Ukraine’s backers in Europe . Such tactics – including disinformation, sabotage or cyber attacks – deliberately stay below the threshold of conventional warfare but have a profound impact on the security environment in Europe. Prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia had been demonstrating less regard for whether its espionage activities are detected and identified or whether they trigger international responses. Russia’s lack of concern regarding attribution or retaliation has accelerated, lessening constraints on its actions. A further escalation in sabotage is plausible as tensions between Europe and Russia mount further. Since February 2022, there has been a significant escalation in acts of sabotage targeting critical infrastructure in Europe that bear the hallmarks of a state actor. These incidents often demonstrate significant technical knowledge; are followed by no claim of responsibility; employ fairly easy-to-acquire methods, such as arson or cable cutters; and cause significant – but temporary – disruption. These acts have occurred in parallel with an increase in hostile surveillance, cyber activity and disinformation, and have targeted critical infrastructure but remained limited in impact, potentially to avoid escalation. Railways and internet cables have been the most common targets so far, particularly in Western Europe. Energy assets, especially offshore, have been subject to significant surveillance, both from drones and vessels.
Key takeaways
Suspected arson attacks attributed to Russia, 2024
Map & Source: Control Risks
The threat to critical infrastructure in Europe from sabotage by or linked to Russia is heightened and this threat will likely increase in the coming months, at least. The most common targets so far have been railways, internet cables and defence assets and companies, but energy assets and logistics companies are increasingly plausible targets. In Eastern Europe, the range of targets has been broader and has included the retail sector. Russia in 2024 has demonstrated a greater willingness to carry out sabotage actions that could also cause injury and this trend appears set to continue. Russia also appears to be increasingly using proxies who employ unsophisticated tactics, widening both Russia’s capabilities and the threat posed by sabotage.
Riga
Vilnius
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Attempted Successful
*Boundaries and country names shown on this map do not imply endorsement or acceptance by Control Risks or Seerist
Successful acts of sabotage so far have mostly been conducted to avoid causing death or injury. However, a shift in approach over 2024 indicates that concern over causing civilian casualties is reducing. The Financial Times in May reported that European intelligence agencies had warned their governments that Russia is intending to carry out covert bombings and arson attacks in European countries, along with attacks on infrastructure. Media in November reported that Western intelligence services believed that devices that exploded in July at DHL logistics facilities in the UK and Germany were part of a Russian plot to attempt to place explosives onto a cargo plane. Some officials reportedly believed that the DHL plot may not have been directly sanctioned by the Kremlin.
Alongside more sophisticated acts of sabotage, untrained individuals recruited locally are likely to carry out less sophisticated, Russia-sanctioned attacks against non-critical targets, particularly in eastern Europe. Targets of such attacks have included a large shopping mall in Warsaw (Poland), an IKEA warehouse in Vilnius (Lithuania), a museum in Riga (Latvia) and a bus depot in Prague (Czechia). In Western Europe, such attacks have remained confined to defence or defence-adjacent Ukrainian targets. A warehouse in London (UK) containing aid shipments to Ukraine was destroyed in March in a fire started by British nationals who were allegedly recruited by Russia.
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