a slow thaw for King County’s spring market
Housing activity throughout King County is picking up but has yet to reach what would be considered typical for this market. Two months into spring, April’s data reveals a lack of inventory and sales struggling to reach their historical average.
below that past-decade average, while townhome and condo inventories were 26% and 20% higher, respectively. Additionally, new listings—which jumped 35% versus last year and, excluding February of this year, reached the closest they’ve been to their 10-year average since September 2022—provided some encouraging signs for those searching for greater choice in the market (as inventory expanded 14% compared to March). Median sold prices, at near record-highs, remained unbothered in April, with the price of a single-family home sitting at $1.05M (15% above last year), townhomes at $770,000 (7% higher), and condos at $495,500 (10% higher). The supply and demand factors influencing our market are moving in a direction that signals an increase in activity, despite a macroeconomic environment that is causing our journey back to historical averages to be a little more leisurely than some would like. We’ll see if the spring market, which is moving in a slow but encouraging direction with respect to activity, can burn off some of the remaining frost in May.
At the conclusion of last year, the prevailing expectation was that there would be a handful of interest rate cuts in 2024. However, as we find ourselves in early May, this expectation remains unaligned with reality, owing to stubborn inflation and an economy that’s running a little too hot for the Fed’s liking. The rate outlook has been thusly muddied—with the prospect of even a single rate cut this year now in jeopardy—and while the most recent softer-than-expected jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is promising for Wall Street (if a little less so for Main Street), it’s not nearly enough to move the needle for a central banking system that has emphasized its reliance on the “totality” of the data. These macroeconomic conditions have impacted housing markets across the country, and King County’s market has been no exception. Examining the buy-side of the market, the combined sales for March and April, excluding last year, have fallen to their lowest total since 2011—a departure from a season that generally
marks a “hot” time of year for this region. Sales counts in April also struggled to reach their historical norm, sitting 19% below their 10-year average. With all of this said, there are some signs of increasing activity emerging from last month’s data, with sales up 13% month-over-month (above the typical seasonal increase of 7%), and sitting 17% higher versus last year. Now, we cannot attribute a struggle in sales reaching its historical levels solely on the macroeconomic environment, as inventory in the region remains constrained (though to be fair, this is another consequence of the macroeconomic climate, as would-be sellers stay put thanks to the rates they locked in prior to their unprecedented rise). The overall count of homes for sale in April was 26% below the past-decade average and a sliver (1.0%) lower than last year (meaning choices for buyers are limited). As we dive deeper into the data, though, single-family homes (which composed over half the inventory in King County in April) were 46%
Copyright © May 8, 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of May 8, 2024. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Service & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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