Gulf of Alaska | Climate and Oceanography
Toward a better understanding of the drivers of compound and extreme events in the Gulf of Alaska Presenter: Remi Pages , rpages@alaska.edu, IARC Claudine Hauri , chauri@alaska.edu The Gulf of Alaska (GoA) is a productive area that supports important commercial and subsistence fisheries. Recent marine heat waves, such as the ‘blob’, have put the ecosystem under stress. Such extreme events are prone to become longer and more intense as a result of climate change. At the same time, other extreme events, such as acidification or low oxygen events are emerging, thereby increasing the likelihood of compound events.This represents a worrying trend since compound events have been shown to lead to a more severe and harmful response in certain organisms than if just exposed to a single stressor. Here we use an ocean-biogeochemical model simulation from 1980-2021 to show that several extreme and compound events have already occurred in the upper water column in the offshore regions of the GoA and on the benthos of the continental shelf. Furthemore, preliminary results suggest that these compound events have become more frequent in recent years. Our results also highlight the major role of the natural decadal climate variability, known as the Northern Gulf of Alaska Oscillation, on triggering such extreme and compound events. We are now working toward a habitat suitability assessment for sensitive organisms, with the final goal of providing guidance for experimental design and management.
Alaska Marine Science Symposium 2023 103
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