Arctic | Ecosystem Perspectives
NPRB Arctic Program IERP synthesis: Pelagic-benthic decoupling? Ecosystem restructuring in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas Presenter: Elizabeth Logerwell , libby.logerwell@noaa.gov, Alaska Fisheries Science Center A key feature of Arctic ecosystems has been strong pelagic-benthic coupling, whereby a large portion of pelagic production sinks to the benthos and supports a rich and diverse community including benthic-foraging marine mammals and birds. It has been hypothesized that phytoplankton blooms will occur later in the spring due to ocean warming and loss of sea ice, and more production will be consumed in the pelagic zone rather than exported to the benthos. Has there been and will there continue to be a restructuring of the Northern Bering-Chukchi seas (NBS-CS) ecosystem resulting from a decrease in pelagic-benthic coupling? Has trophic transfer to subsistence resources and commercial groundfish and crab declined or increased? What are the spatial patterns of temporal change? To address these questions we have formed an interdisciplinary team of leading experts in the fields of Pacific Arctic oceanography, phytoplankton, zooplankton, pelagic fish, benthic epifauna, benthic infauna, benthic fish, marine mammals and seabirds, and spatio-temporal modeling. These experts will synthesize data from 2000-2021 covering the NBS-CS to answer focal questions specific to each discipline. The experts will also provide spatially aggregated variables for fitting generalized additive models and joint species distribution models to predict variables (and associated uncertainty) across the NBS-CS. Model predictions will be used to address three ecological and management endpoints: Survey optimization (e.g., evaluating sampling scenarios that could efficiently reduce uncertainty in future expeditions); Marine spatial information (e.g., identifying changes in resource densities for key subsistence populations in the historical hunting areas of Alaska Native communities); and Ecological outcomes (e.g., identifying whether benthic and/or pelagic biogeographic provinces are shifting). The results of our synthesis project thus will identify specific future sampling options, resolve key ecological questions, and provide information that is useful for Alaska Natives, fisheries managers, and other stakeholders.
Alaska Marine Science Symposium 2023 171
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