Gulf of Alaska | Ecosystem Perspectives
Development and calibration of an Atlantis ecosystem model for the Gulf of Alaska Presenter: Alberto Rovellini , arovel@uw.edu, University of Washington Isaac Kaplan , isaac.kaplan@noaa.gov, NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center André Punt , aepunt@uw.edu, University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences Kerim Aydin , Kerim.Aydin@noaa.gov Albert Hermann , Albert.J.Hermann@noaa.gov Elizabeth Fulton , beth.fulton@csiro.au, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Elizabeth McHuron , emchuron@uw.edu, University of Washington Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies Gemma Carroll , gcarroll@edf.org, Environmental Defense Fund Adam Hayes , alhayes@uw.edu, University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences Szymon Surma , s.surma@fisheries.ubc.ca, University of British Columbia Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries Bridget Ferriss , bridget.ferriss@noaa.gov, NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center Martin Dorn , Martin.Dorn@noaa.gov The Gulf of Alaska (GOA) is a large ecosystem with complex bathymetry and oceanography that supports high fishery revenues. In the past, the GOA has been exposed to climate events, such as marine heat waves, that have had complex effects on multiple ecosystem components, resulting in productivity fluctuations and trophodynamic shifts. While it is unclear how the GOA ecosystem and the fisheries it supports will respond to future climate change, ecological models can help anticipate future change scenarios and evaluate management measures that address changes in stock and ecosystem status. We present the development of an end-to-end, spatially explicit, deterministic, dynamic simulation ecosystem model for the GOA using the Atlantis framework. The model area extends along the GOA continental shelf, from Vancouver Island (Canada) to 170º W along the Aleutian Islands (Alaska), and from the tideline to 1000 m depth. The model captures the GOA food web using 78 functional groups, including single-species groups for some ecologically and commercially important species, and encompasses all size classes from nutrient pools and plankton to megafauna. Atlantis GOA features a geophysical sub-model forced with outputs from oceanographic models (ROMS-NPZ) for the Northeast Pacific, and as such can be used as a simulation tool to explore ecological and fisheries responses to climate events. The model also captures the main sources of commercial fishing in the GOA. We present how Atlantis GOA will be used in hindcast mode to explore the ecosystem-level effects of the 2013-2016 marine heat wave, and in projection mode to simulate the effects of future climate change on ecosystem productivity, allowing us to evaluate the effectiveness of various management strategies under a changing climate. Atlantis GOA, together with other ecological models for the GOA, can help better predict and strategically manage outcomes for the GOA ecosystem under climate change.
Alaska Marine Science Symposium 2023 30
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