Bering Sea | Climate and Oceanography
The journey of enhancing impact-based decision support services for coastal flood forecasting: preparation for Typhoon Merbok Presenter: Jonathan Chriest , jonathan.chriest@noaa.gov, NOAA National Weather Service
Edward Plumb , edward.plumb@noaa.gov, NOAA National Weather Service Richard Buzard , rmbuzard@alaska.edu, University of Alaska Fairbanks Scott Berg , scotty.berg@noaa.gov, NOAA National Weather Service
Jacquelyn Overbeck , jacquelyn.overbeck@noaa.gov, Previously State of Alaska DGGS Coastal Hazards Program On September 16-17, 2022, the remnants of typhoon Merbok caused flooding in dozens of Alaska Native Villages along over 1,000 miles of coastline. The forecast advice and interpretive services provided to emergency personnel and public safety officials adequately prepared and evacuated people and property to higher ground. Successful impact-based forecasts were the result of nearly one decade of collaboration to enhance National Weather Service (NWS) Impact- Based Decision Support Services associated with coastal flooding in Alaska. Here, we present the steps that led to these advances in Alaska’s coastal flood forecast tools thus far. We also discuss planned next steps that will further enhance event-based inundation forecasting and support coastal resilience and adaptation through the development of coastal inundation products at climate timescales. Today’s tools visualize modeled flood extents and identify community-specific impacts, including minor, moderate, and major flood thresholds calibrated to NWS Alaska Region-specific criteria. These products improve forecast decision making, confidence, and accuracy, allowing NWS to effectively communicate risk and were the product of state, federal, and tribal collaborations, scholarships, internships, and the NOAA Digital Coast fellowship.
Alaska Marine Science Symposium 2023 41
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