The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime Marsh 07.25

This report aims to provide readers with an indicative snapshot of kidnap, threat and extortive incidents captured by Control Risks’ Special Risks Analysis team to inform wider trends across Latin America. The following cases are open-source incidents taken from Control Risks’ records. These cases were selected based on their reliable sources and illustrative nature but do not represent the full extent of the problem.

The Global Advisor

Kidnap & extortive crime July 2025

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | July 2025

The essential report written by Control Risks , for the exclusive readership of Hiscox brokers and policy holders.

Casework

Global kidnapping trends

Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Middle East and North Africa

About Us

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | July 2025

Control Risks’ Casework April to June 2025

Kidnap & ransom In the event of an acute crisis – be it kidnap for ransom, extortion, threat, illegal detention or a missing person – effective professional advice is critical. Control Risks is the leading global crisis response consultancy, assigned exclusively to Hiscox assureds. We consistently assist clients with more incidents each year than any other consultancy, giving Control Risks’ consultants an unparalleled level of relevant and recent expertise. Our Response team is immediately available to deploy anywhere in the world. We also have 42 offices worldwide and can provide immediate on-the-ground support to clients in the event of an incident. Control Risks maintains the only team of analysts in the industry that is dedicated to tracking kidnapping-for-ransom and other extortive crime trends globally. The team provides critical operational analysis to support consultants deployed to advise on the resolution of the kidnaps, detentions, threats and extortions affecting Hiscox policy holders. Using the world’s largest commercial database of kidnaps and extortion – currently containing details of more than 88,000 incidents – and their understanding of local security dynamics, the analysts can provide tactical information for a given location, such as the average length of cases and typical concessions, as well as the identities of groups operating there and their motivations. The analysts carry out research and support incidents in multiple languages, including English, French, Spanish, German, Italian, Portuguese, Farsi and Arabic.

The team also supports Hiscox policy holders with preventive kidnap and extortion analysis on the Global Risk Data online platform (brought to assureds by Hiscox as a benefit of the policy), and through bespoke consulting analysis tailored to assureds’ individual exposures.

Location of Control Risks’ cases

Number of cases per country

19 United States 12 Mexico 4 Brazil

Breakdown of cases

47% Threat

26% Threat Extortion

3 Ecuador, UK 2 Italy, Kenya 1

21% Kidnap

4% Detention

Australia, Colombia, France, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Niger, Nigeria, Peru, South Africa, Sweden, Venezuela

2% Missing Person

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | July 2025

Global kidnapping trends April to June 2025

Key trends: open source Incidents by region and local vs foreign nationals

Perpetrator types

100%

Europe & CIS

33 %

1 %

MENA

80%

11 %

6 %

10 %

22 %

12 %

2 %

60%

11 %

Americas

56 %

Asia Pacific

40%

Local nationals

Sub-Saharan Africa

Foreign nationals

20%

64 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 89 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days

97 % of global victims were local nationals 21 sectors affected

Americas

Asia and Pacific Europe and CIS

MENA

Sub-Saharan Africa

Islamist extremist

Ethnic/Nationalist

Left-wing

Criminal

Local Community Group

Other

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | July 2025

Africa

Reported kidnaps in Nigeria increased by 42% in the second quarter of 2025 relative to the same period in the previous year. The increase was itself driven by rises in the north-west and north-central regions, both longstanding hotspots for reported kidnaps-for-ransom. Control Risks also recorded an uptick in the abduction of foreign nationals, including multiple incidents involving gangs targeting Chinese mine workers, as well as the abduction of an Israeli employee of an engineering company in Abia state. Most of these incidents occurred during escorted transit or at secure outdoor worksites, underscoring the high capabilities of the perpetrators. Perpetrators will retain a high intent and capability to target commercial personnel over the coming quarters. The Sahel region has continued to see an escalation in reported kidnaps of foreign nationals, driven by the activity of Islamist extremist groups, such as Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), as well as financially motivated criminals. Since early 2025, these groups have deliberately increased the frequency of such abductions. A growing number of these incidents have occurred outside the traditional kidnapping hotspots of northern Mali and the tri-border Liptako-Gourma region, underscoring the growing geographical reach of armed groups. The drivers behind this uptick, namely a deteriorating security environment and armed groups’ need for continued sources of funding, are unlikely to abate, sustaining an elevated kidnap threat to foreign nationals over the coming quarters.

The kidnapping environment in South Africa has continued to worsen as kidnap gangs grow in capabilities and diversify their victim targeting. While the April abduction of a US pastor was a relative outlier, it reflects a broader trend of greater operational freedom and unconventional tactics on the part of kidnap groups. Other incidents over the quarter have highlighted a similar broadening of victim targeting, with kidnap groups moving beyond their traditional focus on small business owners in cash-intensive sectors. Notable examples included the abduction of a bank executive in Gauteng province in May and the kidnap of a construction project manager in the Eastern Cape in June. Further periodic diversification in tactics and targeting remains likely as a higher number of gangs view kidnapping as a viable source of income. Reported kidnaps in Mozambique saw a modest increase in the second quarter of 2025 relative to the same period in the previous year. In Maputo, criminal gangs continued to target expatriate business owners and their dependants, maintaining the capabilities to hold their victims captive for extended periods. In Cabo Delgado province, kidnaps-for-ransom have escalated, owing to growing activity by both the Islamist extremist group al-Sunnah and financially motivated criminals. The April abduction of four Chinese nationals, reportedly linked to the construction sector, in Ancuabe district (Cabo Delgado province) underscores the growing kidnap threat to commercial personnel operating in rural areas of the province.

61 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 83 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 18 sectors affected

Key developments April to June 2025

Reported kidnaps across Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 22% in the second quarter of 2025 relative to the same period in 2024, largely driven by increases in Nigeria. Nigeria saw a 42% increase in reported kidnaps in the second quarter of 2025 relative to the same period in 2024. Threat actors in the Sahel region continued to focus on kidnapping- for-ransom, driving an uptick in the abduction of foreign nationals. Kidnap gangs in South Africa continued to grow in capabilities and diversify victim targeting. Islamist extremist and criminal groups continued to escalate their kidnap operations in northern Mozambique , while criminal groups continued to target small business owners in the capital Maputo.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | July 2025

Americas

Mexico registered a slight slowdown in the number of cases during the second quarter of 2025, compared to the previous quarter; nonetheless, this quarter’s total is still 7.5% higher than the same period in 2024. Most states registered increases amid the growing presence of major organised criminal groups (OCGs), but Jalisco, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas witnessed particularly elevated numbers of kidnaps. Kidnapping-for-ransom remains the most common type of incident, accounting for 66% of cases, followed by virtual kidnaps, corresponding to approximately 24% of cases. The increasing involvement of a wider range of criminals in virtual kidnapping suggests that such incidents are likely to continue to rise over the rest of the year, particularly in large cities and popular tourist destinations. Despite having one of the lowest threat environments in the Americas over the last decade, Argentina recorded a 175% increase in cases during the first half of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. This does not place the country near the regional hotspots; nonetheless, it underscores the growing number of criminals engaged in financially motivated abductions. This pattern poses a credible threat to business owners, who accounted for 40% of all victims during this quarter. The Buenos Aires and Cordoba provinces accounted for 78% of the incidents, though sporadic kidnappings also occurred throughout the country. The number of confirmed incidents in Ecuador in the second quarter of 2025 increased by 10% compared to the previous quarter, although it decreased by 21% compared to the same period in 2024. This trend underscores the systemic deterioration of the security environment in the country, but particularly in the coastal and Andean

regions where Control Risks records the majority of kidnaps. Guayas remains the national hotspot, followed by the provinces of Los Ríos and Pichincha, although Santa Elena and Santo Domingo also experienced slight upticks. Over 23 criminal groups rely on ransom payments to fund their operations, which will continue to act as a major driver of the crime over the coming months. These groups have enhanced their operational capabilities, and incidents involving deception tactics and high-powered weapons are becoming increasingly common. Peruvian authorities continue to struggle with the proliferation of multiple criminal groups, as the number of reported incidents in the second quarter of 2025 remained consistent with the same period in 2024. The department of Lima remains the national hotspot, accounting for 40% of all incidents over the past quarter. It has experienced a sharp rise in gangs, despite repeated efforts by authorities to improve security through multiple States of Emergency. Criminal groups such as Los Gallegos del Tren de Aragua, Los Mexicanos, and Los Injertos del Cono Norte

are upgrading their capabilities and increasingly operating across middle- and high-income areas, deliberately targeting wealthier individuals and their dependants. Recent cases revealed that these groups can hold victims captive for extended periods and inflict severe physical harm to ensure compliance. 43 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 91 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 18 sectors affected

Key developments April to June 2025

The 7.5% increase in the number of recorded incidents in Mexico during the second quarter of 2025, compared to the same period last year, underscores the nationwide prevalence of criminal groups engaged in kidnapping. Criminals operating in Argentina are increasingly engaging in kidnapping as the number of cases more than doubled in the second quarter of 2025, compared to the same period last year. Ecuador registered a slight increase in cases during the second quarter of 2025, reversing the declining trend observed over the previous two quarters and reinstating the entrenchment of criminal groups. The number of kidnapping incidents in Peru during the second quarter of 2025 remains aligned with the same

period last year, as the government struggles to tackle the proliferation of organised crime.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | July 2025

Asia-Pacific

Malaysia continues to report one of the lowest rates of kidnap-for-ransom in the region; however, confirmed cases surged by 200% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, as well as compared to the second quarter of 2024. While Kuala Lumpur state typically accounts for the majority of incidents, it represented only 33% of cases this quarter. The remaining incidents occurred in historically low-threat areas, including Johor, Putrajaya, and Kelantan state. Low-capability criminals engaged in opportunistic kidnaps still account for the majority of incidents in the country, though Control Risks recorded an unusually high number of complex incidents targeting high-net-worth individuals. Observed tactics included profiling and monitoring the routines of potential victims, followed by precisely timed ambushes while victims travelled between locations. Despite having one of the most difficult reporting environments in Asia-Pacific, Control Risks identified a significant increase in the extent of the kidnap threat in Papua New Guinea over the past quarter. The threat in the country stems mainly from small opportunistic gangs in large urban areas, as well as the presence of multiple tribal groups operating across the highlands, to the west of the country. Kidnaps perpetrated by tribal groups pose a serious threat to victims as they are likely to last for protracted periods, given the limited capabilities of local law enforcement units to operate in areas under their control. Kidnappers target a broad range of victims, including employees and their dependants, and often abduct multiple individuals simultaneously when the opportunity arises. Control Risks recorded a 50% decrease in the number of cases in Thailand during the second quarter of 2025, compared to the previous quarter,

and a 63% decrease compared to the second quarter of 2024. The Greater Bangkok area accounted for the highest drop, followed by Phuket and Amnat Charoen. In contrast, Chonburi province was the only province that saw an increase during the same period. This pattern is unlikely to signal a significant shift in the country’s security landscape for the remainder of the year, as financially motivated criminals continue to operate across multiple regions, particularly Greater Bangkok and Chonburi. Despite the slowdown, kidnappers have still targeted both business owners and their employees. The prevalence of kidnap-for-ransom in Bangladesh increased by 133% in the second quarter of 2025, compared to the same period last year. Chittagong division remains the country’s main hotspot, accounting for approximately 71% of confirmed cases, followed by Dhaka with less than 20%. The presence of a wide variety of criminals in Chittagong poses a credible threat to commercial businesses. Control

Risks confirmed that urban gangs systematically target the employees of small and medium-sized companies, while insurgent groups regularly target the employees of companies running large operations in rural areas, particularly in the agricultural and construction sectors. 82 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 95 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 14 sectors affected

Key developments April to June 2025

Malaysia experienced a sharp increase between the first two quarters of 2025, despite having one of the lowest threat environments in Asia-Pacific. Papua New Guinea registered a slight increase in cases during the second quarter of 2025, amid fears of a sustained increase over the rest of the year. The number of kidnapping cases decreased in Thailand during the second quarter of 2025, following a notable reduction in the Greater Bangkok area. Despite recording a slight reduction in the number of recorded kidnaps in Bangladesh between the first two quarters of 2025, the total number of cases remains higher compared to the first semester of the previous year.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | July 2025

Middle East and North Africa

Although Syria saw a decrease in the number of reported kidnaps in the second quarter of 2025 relative to the same period in 2024, the reduction was due to a worsening reporting environment, and the kidnap threat across the country remains elevated. Since the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 (in office 2000-24), governorates that had benefitted from improved security provision, namely Latakia and Tartous, saw a rise in sectarian and financially motivated kidnaps due to the activity of the Syrian General Security (SGS) and criminal groups. Elsewhere, Turkish-backed militias continued to rely on the crime in Aleppo governorate, while criminal groups have maintained an entrenched presence in As Suwayda and Daraa governorates. In Iran and Yemen , the detention threat remained closely tied to broader geopolitical developments in the region. In the immediate aftermath of the Israel-Iran conflict, Control Risks recorded a limited uptick in the detention of Western nationals in Iran . This trend is likely to continue in the coming months, regardless of whether the ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds, as Tehran will continue to use foreign detainees as bargaining chips as part of its “hostage diplomacy” to extract concessions from their home governments. In Yemen , the renewed US air strikes against Houthi infrastructure between March and April 2025 triggered an escalation in detentions of local nationals perceived to be affiliated with the US or Israel.

Lebanon continued to record periodic kidnaps over the second quarter of 2025, with overall figures remaining comparatively stable relative to the same period in the previous year. Although overall numbers of reported kidnaps decreased nationwide following Israel’s military strikes targeting the Lebanese Shia movement Hizbullah in 2024, kidnapping-for-ransom simultaneously emerged in South Lebanon governorate, as the conflict created a permissive security environment for criminal groups to operate. These incidents closely mirrored national trends with Syrian nationals accounting for the majority of reported victims. Despite the overall decrease in reported kidnaps, a number of criminal groups will continue to capitalise on the lower levels of policing to engage in the crime, particularly in the eastern governorates of Baalbek-Hermel and Beqaa, bordering Syria Across North Africa , with the notable exception of Libya, the kidnap landscape continued to be characterised by the activity of low-level and financially motivated criminals. While Egypt continued to see periodic kidnaps over the past quarter, reported incidents in Tunisia , Morocco and Algeria remained rare or sporadic. Reported kidnaps in these countries continued to be concentrated in urban areas, owing to a larger population density. Perpetrators operate with limited capabilities and predominantly target local businesspeople and their dependants, often as a means of settling interpersonal disputes or forcing debt repayments.

65 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 88 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 8 sectors affected

Key developments April to June 2025

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region saw numbers of reported kidnaps over the second quarter of 2025 decrease by 30% relative to the same period in 2024, in line with trends in the previous quarter. The decrease in reported kidnaps continued to be driven a reduction in reported incidents in Syria and Iran , where media coverage on specific kidnap incidents waned. Detentions will continue to pose a prevalent threat to commercial personnel in Iran and Yemen . Lebanon has continued to see periodic kidnaps, with South Lebanon governorates seeing their share of nationwide reported kidnaps increase. Reported kidnaps in most of North Africa (with the exception of Libya),

continued to be perpetrated by low-level criminals and driven by interpersonal disputes.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | July 2025

About Us The Hiscox Crisis Management division serves both corporate and private clients. Our exclusive partnership with Control Risks allows us to combine renowned insurance expertise with unparalleled security risk and crisis management capability to protect what matters most to our clients. We are the global leaders in this sector. For over 30 years in partnership, Hiscox and Control Risks have helped policyholders manage thousands of crisis events, including complex security and integrity issues. Together, we combine our insurance expertise with Control Risks’ capabilities across security risk and crisis management, protecting what matters most to our clients.

Control Risks is a global specialist risk consultancy. We are committed to helping our clients build organisations that are secure, compliant and resilient in an age of ever-changing risk. We believe that responsible risk-taking is at the core of our clients’ success. We have unparalleled experience in helping clients ready themselves for, respond to and recover from challenges and crises that arise in any ambitious organisation seeking to convert risk into opportunity globally. Kidnap & ransom Hiscox has established itself as the world’s leading provider of crisis insurance for the last 25 years, offering financial protection and world-class response services to corporations and private individuals all around the world. Our insurance offering keeps people and businesses safe against the threat of kidnap, extortive threats, malicious detention, hijack and other complex crises. We insure all forms of corporates, from the largest multinationals to the smallest companies, as well as families and some of the wealthiest people in the world whose wealth or fame may attract unwanted attention. Hiscox is the world’s largest provider of crisis insurance, currently underwriting more than half of the industry’s kidnap and ransom insurance premium.

In business since 1901, Hiscox is one of the most trusted and influential Lloyd’s of London syndicates. Whether it’s protecting family homes from a storm surge or hail damage, helping to safeguard blue-chip companies from the crippling financial and reputational costs of a cyber-attack, or working to keep employees safe and businesses operational following a terrorist incident, we continue to innovate to respond to some of the most complex, volatile and emerging risks.

Key coverages include:

Multinational companies of all sizes operating in high risk regions of the world Charities and NGOs Security companies Shipping companies Key executives working in commercially sensitive positions Private families

Copyright © Control Risks. All rights reserved. This report is for distribution by Hiscox only and must not be reproduced or disclosed to any other party (“Third Party”) without the express prior written consent of Control Risks or Hiscox. Any reproduction or disclosure without authorisation shall be considered an infringement of Control Risks’ intellectual property rights (including copyright). If authorised, disclosure by an authorised party (“Authorised Party”) must be subject to the following conditions: (i) the Authorised Party will not change the wording or alter the meaning given in any part of this report; (ii) all extracts from this report will be individually attributed to Control Risks with the reference “Source: Control Risks” at the end of such extract; and (iii) save as otherwise agreed in writing by Control Risks, the Authorised Party will not broadcast, publish, resell or otherwise disclose this report to any Third Party without the prior written consent of Control Risks. This report is based on information available at the time of writing. No express or implied warranty is given in respect of any judgment made or to changes or any unforeseen escalation of any factors affecting any such judgment. The issues covered by this report and the emphasis placed on them may not necessarily address all the issues of concern in relation to its subject matter. Analysis provided in this report does not in any way constitute recommendations or advice, nor constitute a warranty of future results by any company in the Control Risks group of companies (“Control Risks”) nor an assurance against risk. Control Risks disclaims all liability arising from the disclosure and use of this report.

For more information about Hiscox or Control Risks, please contact: Kidnap and Ransom Team marc.l.hewitt@marsh.com alice.dickson@marsh.com hiscox.com Special Risks Analysis Team specialrisksanalysis@controlrisks.com controlrisks.com

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