Photo Courtesy Donlin Gold
Mining continues to be a major provider of jobs in Alaska.
The economic potential of Alaska’s mining industry
ple will it employ? What minerals will it produce? Predictions about future events in- volve significant uncertainty, and the course of the mining industry will depend on mineral prices and a host of unpredictable events. Rather than trying to forecast these unpredictable events, we projected three possible fu- tures: n one with industry-favorable economic and policy conditions, n one where status quo conditions prevail, and n one with unfavorable conditions. We reviewed active mineral prop- erties in Alaska: those operating, in permitting, and being explored. Our report assigned probabilities that these
would be operating in 20 years based on their exploration stage. The report assigned probabilities to each group of projects but does not venture an opin- ion about the prospects for any partic- ular property. Probabilities for projects in the same exploration stage were as- signed based on a review of probabili- ties in the academic literature, the ex- ploration stage for that project group. Hard rock, coal and placer mines were assigned probabilities separately. Different probabilities were assigned to a future with industry-favorable economic and policy conditions, to a status quo scenario, and to an unfa- vorable-condition scenario. These three scenarios — favorable, status quo, and unfavorable — do not
This report was prepared by the authors listed and does not neces- sarily reflect the views of ISER or the University of Alaska. The report and its findings should be attributed to the authors, rather than to ISER, the University of Alaska Anchorage, or the sponsors of the research. BY BOB LOEFFLER AND BRETT WATSON INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA ANCHORAGE
What will Alaska’s mining industry look like in 20 years? How many peo-
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The Alaska Miner
Spring 2022
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