approximately a third to 2,600 jobs.
Table ES-1. Mining Industry Potential in 20 Years by Scenario Unfavorable Status Quo
Favorable
Today
Value
(Range)
Value
(Range)
Value
(Range)
Employment Direct
3,876 7,752 $428
2,646 5,292 $ 292
(1,657-3,782) (3,300-7,600) ($166-$378) (1,069-2,506)
4,807
(3,440-6,174)
8,472
(7,263-9772)
Direct and Indirect
9,614 (6,900-12,300)
16,944
(14,500-19,500) ($726-$977) (4,841-6,341)
Direct Wages (Million $) Gross Value (Million $)
$531
($340-$617) (2,304-4,087)
$935
$2,626
$ 1,744
$3,196
$5,589
Economic Potential of Alaska’s Mineral Industry
1
Summary
define the best or worst case. This re - port does not consider a zero-mining scenario, whereby an initiative or law makes it impossible to develop new mines and shuts down many or all existing ones. Such a scenario is not impossible but is not interesting for analysis. It is also possible that the indus- try could expand beyond our Favorable Scenario analysis. We have tried to describe reasonably likely, potentially achievable, descriptions of what may happen during the next two decades. Below are the results of our analysis. Employment In 2019, the mining industry pro- vided approximately 3,900 direct jobs. In the favorable scenario, the number of mining jobs could more than dou- ble in 20 years to almost 8,500 jobs. Including indirect employment, the mineral industry could be responsi- ble for almost 17,000 jobs in the fa- vorable scenario. In our unfavorable scenario, employment would fall by a third to 2,600 jobs. These are not precise estimates. There is some subjectivity in the probabilities they are based on. To show that, we assigned ranges on either side of the probability. These are the figures in parentheses in the tables picture. These ranges are not a statistical confidence interval. Rather, we more arbitrarily assigned a range around each probability to emphasize the inherent uncertainty of the method. We picked 10 percent on either side of the probability, or an obvious cut-off such as 50 percent or 75 percent to emphasize the potential uncertainty, or the order-of-magnitude nature of the analysis.
would fall by approximately a third to $1.7 billion. Basic industries bring money into Alaska from outside the state. Basic industries in Alaska — such as oil, fishing, tourism, mining, and feder - al spending — play a key role in our state’s economy. Money from outside the state flows in and supports addi - tional economic activity. We estimate that these basic industries today bring in approximately $19 billion to Alaska.
with Alaska’s economy The gross value of production, us- ing estimates of future production and today’s prices, would increase also more than double under favor- able conditions from today’s value of $2.6 billion to almost $5.6 billion. Of course, if prices increased, the value would increase as well. However, $5.6 billion is approximately 10 percent of Alaska’s GDP in 2020, though it would be a smaller share in 20 years assum- ing the economy grows. In unfavorable conditions, the value of production
CONTINUED on PAGE 28
Production value and comparison
27
Spring 2022
The Alaska Miner
Made with FlippingBook Ebook Creator