Figure ES-1. Potential Direct Employment in 20 Years, by Scenario
Most of these minerals are depen- dent on a single mine, such as Graph- ite Creek on the Seward Peninsula for graphite, and the Bornite project in the Ambler Mining District for cobalt. Finally, Alaska can produce signif- icant amounts of copper from several prospects, mostly those being explored in the Ambler Mining District. Cop- per is an important base metal used in electric wiring, power transmission and power generation, including many renewable energy applications. Our Favorable Scenario estimates production of around 110 thousand tons of copper per year, primarily from Ambler District mines in northwest Alaska. This level amounts to about 9 percent of United States’ annual cop- per production, and about 1 percent of global production. As elsewhere in the report, we omit estimates of potential production from the Pebble Project, which on its own could produce more than double this quantity. The Role of Large Projects Two projects/mining districts play an outsized role in the potential Favor- able Scenario, that is, in the potential growth of the mining industry. The properties that could develop in the
Whether you need geophysical, geological or exploration support services, our ideas, experience and northern expertise mean you’ll have the best thinking on your project. Go ahead – pick our brains. Production value and comparison with Alaska’s economy. The gross value of production, using estimates of future production and today’s prices, would increase also more than doubl under favorable conditions: from today’s value of $2.6 billion to almost $5.6 billion. Of cou if prices increased, the value would increase as well. However, $5.6 billion is approximately 10% of Alaska’s GDP in 2020, though it would be a smaller share in 20 years assuming the economy grows. In unfavorable conditions, the value of production would fall by approxima a third to $1.7 billion. yellowknife • whitehorse • juneau Basic industries bring money into Alaska from outside the state. Basic industries in Alaska – such as oil, fishing, tourism, mining, and federal spending – play a key role in our state’s economy. Money from outside the state flows in and supports additional economic activity. W estimate that these basic industries today bring in approximately $19 billion to Alaska. The favorable scenario’s value, $5.6 billion would be responsible for almost a quarter of what com into Alaska today. Even in 20 years this would be a significant level of exports – more than federal government brings into Alaska today and much more than any other industry except o It would raise the basic industries’ input to Alaska’s economy as it is sized today by 15%. T would bring an important statewide increase into the economy, even accounting for overall economic growth in 20 years. Ambler Mining District could together employ around nine hundred, as could the Donlin Gold project. Together, these 1,800 potential direct jobs repre- sent around 40 percent of the new jobs that might be created in the Favorable Scenario. The projects share several other important features. They both These are not precise estimates; there is some subjectivity in the probabilities they are based To show that, we assigned ranges on either side of the probability. These are the figures in parentheses in Table ES-1 and are represented by the bars in Figure ES-1. These ranges are n statistical confidence interval. Rather, we more arbitrarily assigned a range around each probability to emphasize the inherent uncertainty of the method. We picked 10% on either si of the probability, or an obvious cut-off such as 50% or 75% to emphasize the potential uncertainty, or the order-of-magnitude nature of the analysis. are situated on land owned by Alas- ka Native Corporations, and they both require a significant infrastructure in - vestment to operate. Donlin Gold re- quires a 315-mile natural gas pipeline, and Ambler requires a 200-mile access haul road.
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Victor Ross (907) 352-7809
Economic Potential of Alaska’s Mineral Industry Summary
victor.ross@stantec.com Steve Reidsma, PWS (907) 450-1425 steve.reidsma@stantec.com
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Spring 2022
The Alaska Miner
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