Global Advisor: Terrorism - Marsh 02.26

The Global Advisor, Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest. May 2025 for Marsh.

The Global Advisor

Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest December 2025

The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | December 2025

The essential report written by Control Risks , for the exclusive readership of Hiscox brokers and policy holders.

Terrorism, war and civil unrest trends

Global outlook

Focus on: Gen Z protest movement

Focus on: Terrorism threat during holiday season

About Us

The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | December 2025

Terrorism, war and civil unrest trends July–September 2025 (Q3)

Top 8 commercial sectors for terrorism, war and civil unrest incidents 19 % Education 14 % Aviation 11 % Healthcare 9 % Power 8 % Retail 8 % Agriculture 7 % Oil and Gas 4 % Construction

Elevated activity across key global hotspots drove a nearly 20% increase in war-related incidents in Q3 2025. Attacks by the Ukrainian military in Russian territories surged by 75%, while Russian incidents in Ukraine rose by 18% compared to Q2 2025. Following Q2 hostilities involving the US, Israel and Iran, incident numbers dropped sharply in Iran in Q3, falling from 245 to just 12. Unrest incidents globally rose by 13% from Q2 2025 to Q3 2025, driven in part by youth-led “Gen Z” protests across several countries, including Indonesia, Morocco, Madagascar, Peru, Nepal and the Philippines. The US continued to have the highest number of protest actions, driven by immigration policies, local political dynamics and the Israel-Gaza situation. Global terrorist activity remained broadly stable in Q3 2025. Although, incidents almost doubled from 60 to 111 in the Palestinian Territories, and rose by approximately 50% to 75 in Israel, reflecting escalations that occurred in Q2 prior to the October ceasefire.

Top 10 countries by incident category

Source: Seerist

Terrorism

Palestinian Terr. Israel Mozambique Syria Colombia Mali Pakistan Yemen Nigeria Congo (DRC)

100

120

War

Ukraine Russia Palestinian Terr.

Myanmar Lebanon Syria Sudan

Congo (DRC) Taiwan (China) Israel

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Unrest

25,649

16% increase on Q2 2025

United States India Morocco Mexico Iran Germany Israel Indonesia Iraq France

Source: Seerist

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

The report’s data is sourced from Seerist, a leading risk intelligence platform

The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | December 2025

Global outlook – December 2025 to February 2026

Mexico: Civil unrest and political tensions will rise throughout Mexico, due to a series of high-profile targeted assassinations against mayors in Michoacán state. The federal government will bolster measures, although these will have limited success. Colombia: Political violence will likely rise ahead of the presidential elections in May 2026. Armed groups will intimidate voters and threaten legislative candidates in rural areas throughout the election period. Attacks against candidates in urban areas cannot be ruled out. Chile: President-elect José Antonio Kast’s conservative positions on social issues, such as abortion, are likely to trigger occasional protests by left-wing movements in Santiago. However, large-scale, violent, and widespread demonstrations remain unlikely. Western and Central Europe: Governments will introduce tougher measures to mitigate repeated drone flights by unidentified actors over sensitive sites, military bases, airports, industrial zones and critical infrastructure. The drone flights regularly disrupt air travel. Mali: Instability risks will remain extreme over the coming months, as a fuel blockade by militant group JNIM around the capital puts the military junta under considerable pressure.

Benin: Instability and war risks will persist after Beninese authorities and ECOWAS foiled a military coup on 7 December. ECOWAS intends to maintain a standby force as Benin prepares for elections in January and April 2026, respectively. Madagascar: Instability and unrest risks will remain elevated in the next quarter as the new government led by Michael Randrianirina attempts to consolidate control over the security apparatus. Pakistan: Following an 11 November suicide bomb attack in the capital Islamabad, authorities will intensify counter-terrorism operations in the regions bordering Afghanistan and security operations across the country. Nepal: The threat of political instability will remain heightened ahead of the March 2026 elections amid increased activism from youth and pro-monarchy groups. Investigations into Gen Z protests could sustain localised unrest. Myanmar: The elections from 28 December to the end of January will heighten duty-of-care and operational risks, as pro-democracy groups attempt to disrupt the process, and military authorities resort to violent threats to boost turnout. Australia: The Israel-Palestine situation and growing anti-Semitic, Islamophobic and anti-foreigner sentiment will be the main drivers of political violence. Companies with perceived links to Israel (particularly in the defence industry) remain at risk of direct targeting, including activist blockades and arson.

Turkiye: A ceasefire between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Turkiye is holding, reducing related security threats. Should the Turkish government not deliver on promised concessions, there is potential in the longer term for the emergence of new Kurdish militant groups or PKK splinter groups. Cyprus: The October election in the Turkish- speaking north of a president more amenable to negotiations with the Greek Cypriot part of the island opens up the prospect of progress in resolving the island’s frozen conflict.

Israel/Palestinian Territories: The ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas in Gaza will face growing pressure, with the potential for hostilities to gradually intensify. Egypt: The November parliamentary elections will have a minimal impact on the country’s political stability or levels of civil unrest, largely due to strict control and monitoring by authorities.

Outlook

Central African Republic 28 December General elections

Guinea

Benin

Portugal

Thailand

Bangladesh 12 February

Ukraine/Russia 24 February

28 December Presidential election

11 January Parliamentary elections

18 January Presidential election

8 February General election

Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

General election

The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | December 2025

Focus on: Gen Z protest movement

Protests erupting globally in 2025 have been predominantly driven by youth and student (Gen Z) movements and refute the notion that young people are apathetic to societal issues, such as inequality, corruption, climate change and geopolitical conflicts. While these protests are often triggered by local developments or ongoing grievances, they all reflect broader dissatisfaction with the political leadership and economic instability. This is especially the case where disaffected and often unemployed young people face declining living standards and limited public services. The recent wave of unrest highlights a shift in how younger protesters are mobilised. These movements have adopted universal symbols and made similar demands despite their geographic distance. Youth groups are leveraging digital tools, including hashtags, AI-enhanced or satirical images and memes. Visual references from global culture, that have been adapted to local struggles yet are instantly recognisable globally, circulate rapidly. A key symbol of youth-led protests is a flag depicting a skull and crossbones wearing a yellow hat from a Japanese manga series. Gen Z protest movements have been particularly large in Bulgaria , Indonesia , Madagascar , Morocco , Nepal , Peru , the Philippines and Serbia . Most unrest has been directed towards governments, underscoring the protesters’ drive for political and economic change. Most of the demonstrations were against government sites and security forces between 1 July and 6 October. Youth-led protests have contributed to significant political upheaval, and leaders in Bulgaria ,

Key takeaways

Unrest incidents against commercial sectors in hotspots, 1 July–6 Oct

Source: Seerist

Youth-led protests are increasingly transnational, driven by shared grievances and co-ordinated through digital platforms rather than geographic proximity. Corruption and inequality remain central catalysts, with political scandals often acting as accelerants for mobilisation. The use of global cultural references, such as the Japanese manga flag, illustrates how youth movements adapt and mirror each other to build solidarity and visibility. Hotspot regions with high youth unemployment, severe inequality and pervasive online cultures include those in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Companies should monitor major events and policy reforms as potential flashpoints for unrest that could prompt operational disruption, political instability and reputational risks.

Indonesia Madagascar

Morocco Nepal

Peru Philippines Serbia

Madagascar , Peru and Nepal have been removed or stood down. Meanwhile, high-ranking resignations were rife during the peak of the protests in the Philippines and Indonesia . While the quick turnover in leadership underscores the power of these protests, rapid transitions also introduce political and integrity risks. Countries with high youth unemployment, strained public resources and deep inequality will remain hotspots for youth-led unrest. In 2024, the UN International Labor Organization (ILO) reported that the Middle East and North Africa , Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have elevated rates of unemployed or out-of-school young people. Another key factor that supports the development of such movements is access to mobile internet and social media.

Future trigger events will include major sports or other large events that require high levels of funding or controversial reforms. Morocco’s ambitious investment drive ahead of global sporting events, including the 2030 soccer World Cup, added to the sense of imbalance and frustration that drove recent youth protests there. The Pan American Games in Peru (2027) and Paraguay (2031), and the African Games in Egypt (2027), are other events that could drive protest activity. Reforms related to pensions, cost of living, education and healthcare will also remain flashpoints for unrest. And longer-term, more extreme weather events may prompt large-scale rebuilding projects that are vulnerable to corruption, stoking discontent.

The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | December 2025

Focus on: Terrorism threat during holiday season

Global security threats will be elevated during the holiday season in Q4 2025 as threat actors will have heightened intent to call for and carry out attacks on or around Christmas (24–26 December), the Jewish festival of Hanukkah (14–22 December), New Year (31 December–1 January) and Orthodox Christmas (7 January). While the number of Islamist extremist terrorist attacks have been decreasing in Western countries during the holiday season over the past few years, insecurity in the Middle East mean that Islamist extremists have an elevated intent to mount attacks. Furthermore, growing right-wing sentiment off the back of anti-immigration narratives and political polarisation will continue to drive mounting Islamophobic and anti-Semitic attacks in Europe, North America and Australia, including during holiday events that are concentrated throughout Q4. Two gunmen linked to Islamic State (IS) on 14 December targeted a gathering celebrating the Jewish festival of Hanukkah at Sydney’s Bondi Beach (Australia), killing at least 15 people and injuring 40 others. Threat actors will likely continue to use vehicle- borne tactics when mounting attacks, including against soft targets such as pedestrians and crowded venues during the holiday period. In Germany, police on 12 December arrested five people on suspicion of plotting to mount a vehicle-borne attack on a Christmas market in Munich. While Islamist extremists, and to a lesser extent right-wing extremists and conspiracists, have increasingly used vehicles as weapons since the mid-2010s, personal grievances will likely continue to be the most dynamic motivation behind the threat of such attacks.

Key takeaways

Vehicle ramming attacks by Islamist extremists, July 2023–Oct 2025

Source: Seerist

Recent incidents and plots in Australia, Germany and the US underscore the

persistent intent of both Islamist extremists and to a lesser extent right-wing extremists to target prominent holiday events.

Growing right-wing sentiment linked to anti-immigration narratives and political polarisation will continue to drive mounting Islamophobia and antisemitism in Europe, North America and Australia. The most likely scenario for an Islamist extremist attack in Western countries will be an attack by an individual or small group using unsophisticated tactics against soft targets, such as holiday markets, shopping districts as well as minority communities. Large-scale and complex attacks are most likely in regions with active militant or insurgent groups, including North Africa, the Sahel region of West Africa and the Middle East.

Africa

Americas

Asia & The Pacific Europe & CIS Middle East & North Africa

Other likely targets will be place of worships and religious schools during the holiday period. In the US, the leader of the neo-Nazi, nihilistic extremist group the “Maniac Murder Cult” (MMC) on 17 November pleaded guilty to attempting to recruit people to poison minors from the Jewish community in Brooklyn (New York) on New Year’s Eve (31 January). Large-scale and complex attacks are most likely in regions with active militant or insurgent groups, including North Africa, the Sahel region of West Africa and the Middle East. In Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand, attacks

are most likely to be improvised or small-scale, involving firearms, bladed weapons or vehicles, and take place against soft targets. Already heightened security measures around the holiday period are likely to be increased across the country, particularly at Christmas markets, shopping areas, transportation hubs and other crowded areas, making such attacks more difficult to perpetrate. Authorities in Berlin (Germany), London (UK) and New York (US) have announced increased measures around Hanukkah-related installations and events.

The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | December 2025

About Us The Hiscox Crisis Management division serves both corporate and private clients. Our exclusive partnership with Control Risks allows us to combine renowned insurance expertise with unparalleled security risk and crisis management capability to protect what matters most to our clients. We are the global leaders in this sector. Celebrating 30 years in partnership, Hiscox and Control Risks have helped policyholders manage thousands of crisis events, including complex security and integrity issues. Together, we combine our insurance expertise with Control Risks’ capabilities across security risk and crisis management, protecting what matters most to our clients.

Control Risks is a global specialist risk consultancy. We are committed to helping our clients build organisations that are secure, compliant and resilient in an age of ever-changing risk. We believe that responsible risk-taking is at the core of our clients’ success. We have unparalleled experience in helping clients ready themselves for, respond to and recover from challenges and crises that arise in any ambitious organisation seeking to convert risk into opportunity globally. Terrorism Hiscox has established itself as the market-leading provider of war, terrorism and political violence insurance for the last 25 years, offering financial protection and world-class response services to our clients all around the world. We offer a diverse portfolio of options within our terrorism suite of products to ensure our clients are adequately protected against and prepared to respond to the latest global threats. We insure some of the biggest organisations in the world, across 130 different countries including some of the most volatile regions. We have the ability to write every major coverage type in the market, and also have a selection of unique products designed and developed by our in-house team.

In business since 1901, Hiscox is one of the most trusted and influential Lloyd’s of London syndicates. Whether it’s protecting family homes from a storm surge or hail damage, helping to safeguard blue-chip companies from the crippling financial and reputational costs of a cyber-attack, or working to keep employees safe and businesses operational following a terrorist incident, we continue to innovate to respond to some of the most complex, volatile and emerging risks.

Key coverages include:

Terrorism physical damage Terrorism business interruption Riots, strikes, civil commotion and malicious damage Terrorism liability Contingent cover Broad political violence including or excluding war/civil war Malicious attack Confiscation, expropriation, nationalisation and deprivation (CEND) Lenders’ interests Nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological (NCBR) Threat

For more information about Hiscox or Control Risks, please contact: Rich Halstead richard.halstead@hiscox.com hiscox.com Jenny Wells-Cole jenny.wellscole@controlrisks.com controlrisks.com Raj Rana raj.rana@marsh.com marsh.com

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