The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | December 2025
Global outlook – December 2025 to February 2026
Mexico: Civil unrest and political tensions will rise throughout Mexico, due to a series of high-profile targeted assassinations against mayors in Michoacán state. The federal government will bolster measures, although these will have limited success. Colombia: Political violence will likely rise ahead of the presidential elections in May 2026. Armed groups will intimidate voters and threaten legislative candidates in rural areas throughout the election period. Attacks against candidates in urban areas cannot be ruled out. Chile: President-elect José Antonio Kast’s conservative positions on social issues, such as abortion, are likely to trigger occasional protests by left-wing movements in Santiago. However, large-scale, violent, and widespread demonstrations remain unlikely. Western and Central Europe: Governments will introduce tougher measures to mitigate repeated drone flights by unidentified actors over sensitive sites, military bases, airports, industrial zones and critical infrastructure. The drone flights regularly disrupt air travel. Mali: Instability risks will remain extreme over the coming months, as a fuel blockade by militant group JNIM around the capital puts the military junta under considerable pressure.
Benin: Instability and war risks will persist after Beninese authorities and ECOWAS foiled a military coup on 7 December. ECOWAS intends to maintain a standby force as Benin prepares for elections in January and April 2026, respectively. Madagascar: Instability and unrest risks will remain elevated in the next quarter as the new government led by Michael Randrianirina attempts to consolidate control over the security apparatus. Pakistan: Following an 11 November suicide bomb attack in the capital Islamabad, authorities will intensify counter-terrorism operations in the regions bordering Afghanistan and security operations across the country. Nepal: The threat of political instability will remain heightened ahead of the March 2026 elections amid increased activism from youth and pro-monarchy groups. Investigations into Gen Z protests could sustain localised unrest. Myanmar: The elections from 28 December to the end of January will heighten duty-of-care and operational risks, as pro-democracy groups attempt to disrupt the process, and military authorities resort to violent threats to boost turnout. Australia: The Israel-Palestine situation and growing anti-Semitic, Islamophobic and anti-foreigner sentiment will be the main drivers of political violence. Companies with perceived links to Israel (particularly in the defence industry) remain at risk of direct targeting, including activist blockades and arson.
Turkiye: A ceasefire between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Turkiye is holding, reducing related security threats. Should the Turkish government not deliver on promised concessions, there is potential in the longer term for the emergence of new Kurdish militant groups or PKK splinter groups. Cyprus: The October election in the Turkish- speaking north of a president more amenable to negotiations with the Greek Cypriot part of the island opens up the prospect of progress in resolving the island’s frozen conflict.
Israel/Palestinian Territories: The ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas in Gaza will face growing pressure, with the potential for hostilities to gradually intensify. Egypt: The November parliamentary elections will have a minimal impact on the country’s political stability or levels of civil unrest, largely due to strict control and monitoring by authorities.
Outlook
Central African Republic 28 December General elections
Guinea
Benin
Portugal
Thailand
Bangladesh 12 February
Ukraine/Russia 24 February
28 December Presidential election
11 January Parliamentary elections
18 January Presidential election
8 February General election
Anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
General election
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