The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | December 2025
Focus on: Terrorism threat during holiday season
Global security threats will be elevated during the holiday season in Q4 2025 as threat actors will have heightened intent to call for and carry out attacks on or around Christmas (24–26 December), the Jewish festival of Hanukkah (14–22 December), New Year (31 December–1 January) and Orthodox Christmas (7 January). While the number of Islamist extremist terrorist attacks have been decreasing in Western countries during the holiday season over the past few years, insecurity in the Middle East mean that Islamist extremists have an elevated intent to mount attacks. Furthermore, growing right-wing sentiment off the back of anti-immigration narratives and political polarisation will continue to drive mounting Islamophobic and anti-Semitic attacks in Europe, North America and Australia, including during holiday events that are concentrated throughout Q4. Two gunmen linked to Islamic State (IS) on 14 December targeted a gathering celebrating the Jewish festival of Hanukkah at Sydney’s Bondi Beach (Australia), killing at least 15 people and injuring 40 others. Threat actors will likely continue to use vehicle- borne tactics when mounting attacks, including against soft targets such as pedestrians and crowded venues during the holiday period. In Germany, police on 12 December arrested five people on suspicion of plotting to mount a vehicle-borne attack on a Christmas market in Munich. While Islamist extremists, and to a lesser extent right-wing extremists and conspiracists, have increasingly used vehicles as weapons since the mid-2010s, personal grievances will likely continue to be the most dynamic motivation behind the threat of such attacks.
Key takeaways
Vehicle ramming attacks by Islamist extremists, July 2023–Oct 2025
Source: Seerist
8
Recent incidents and plots in Australia, Germany and the US underscore the
persistent intent of both Islamist extremists and to a lesser extent right-wing extremists to target prominent holiday events.
6
Growing right-wing sentiment linked to anti-immigration narratives and political polarisation will continue to drive mounting Islamophobia and antisemitism in Europe, North America and Australia. The most likely scenario for an Islamist extremist attack in Western countries will be an attack by an individual or small group using unsophisticated tactics against soft targets, such as holiday markets, shopping districts as well as minority communities. Large-scale and complex attacks are most likely in regions with active militant or insurgent groups, including North Africa, the Sahel region of West Africa and the Middle East.
4
2
0
Africa
Americas
Asia & The Pacific Europe & CIS Middle East & North Africa
Other likely targets will be place of worships and religious schools during the holiday period. In the US, the leader of the neo-Nazi, nihilistic extremist group the “Maniac Murder Cult” (MMC) on 17 November pleaded guilty to attempting to recruit people to poison minors from the Jewish community in Brooklyn (New York) on New Year’s Eve (31 January). Large-scale and complex attacks are most likely in regions with active militant or insurgent groups, including North Africa, the Sahel region of West Africa and the Middle East. In Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand, attacks
are most likely to be improvised or small-scale, involving firearms, bladed weapons or vehicles, and take place against soft targets. Already heightened security measures around the holiday period are likely to be increased across the country, particularly at Christmas markets, shopping areas, transportation hubs and other crowded areas, making such attacks more difficult to perpetrate. Authorities in Berlin (Germany), London (UK) and New York (US) have announced increased measures around Hanukkah-related installations and events.
05
Copyright © Control Risks – Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Made with FlippingBook Digital Publishing Software