a common refrain: inventory is constrained
If not for recent record-highs in new listing activity, the continued presence of strong buyer demand would have whittled inventory down to improbably low levels. As it stands, last month’s inventory count merely represented an all-time September nadir.
to a previous 12-month high of 92,752 in September 2016. So incredibly, despite the region’s sales-to- listings ratio sitting comfortably in sellers’ market territory since June 2020—meaning the housing market playing field has been tilted in favour of sellers for 16 months, bidding up sold prices—the lack of balance in our current market would be far worse than it is if we hadn’t achieved record new listings activity. In some ways, new listings have played the role of unsung hero, accruing in the background at never-seen- before levels while most of the attention has remained on elevated sales counts and depleted inventory. The early returns for October are showing further declines in inventory as sales counts are marching upwards and new listings slow (at the margin). If this continues for the next few months, we could see conditions remain challenging for buyers through to the new year.
The main real estate story in the Vancouver Region has been, and continues to be, centred on housing supply—or rather, a lack thereof. To be more precise, inventory levels—that is, the number of homes available for purchase at a given point in time—fell to 12,379 in September, which is the lowest count for any September since such data were first collected in 1989. September was the fifth straight month of receding inventory, with last month’s count down 36% from 2020’s September number. What gives? Well, for all of the chatter about softening sales counts, the fact remains that buyers continue to be active in our region’s housing market. For example, while we failed to crack the 5,000 threshold for sales in September, we did tally 4,951, which is 29% higher than the past 10-year average for September.
It extends a run dating back to the end of 2020 which has seen more sales accrue in the past 12 months (71,551) than in any 12-month period pre-dating the pandemic (the next highest 12-month sales count ended in June 2016, at 71,299). So demand is strong (notably in spite of the relative dearth of international migrants we’ve welcomed since the beginning of Covid!). Having noted the above, it is tremendously fascinating to us that new listings activity— that is, the number of homes that are newly-listed on MLS each month (which are added to that month’s inventory if they don’t sell)—has reached feverish levels. To be specific, the past-12-month new listings count in the Vancouver Region was in excess of 100,000 in September, sitting at 100,295. This metric has been above the 100,000 threshold for 6 consecutive months and peaked at 108,604 in May. Compare this
Copyright © 2021 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of October 12, 2021. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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