Over in Russia, the popularity rating of President Vladimir Putin is hitting all-time lows, as he tries to fob off responsibility for crisis management to his prime minister (who was sidelined with the virus) and Moscow’s mayor. Russia has the third highest number of COVID-19 cases of any country in the world, and it’s only getting worse. And as I wrote a few months ago, Russia and other emerging markets – like Nigeria, Venezuela, and Iran that rely on oil like you and I rely on air – are going to be among the biggest losers. Put it all together and it’s clear... The U.S. is having a lousy pandemic crisis, but other big countries are having an even worse time. That alone doesn’t mean that America is going to come out ahead... But it sure helps. The U.S. is having a lousy pandemic crisis, but other big countries are having an even worse time. That alone doesn’t mean that America is going to 2. The U.S. has the fumes of the strong American brand to run on. That brings us back to Peyton Manning – one of the best quarterbacks and strongest leaders on the field in American football history. In what would be the final season of his career, Manning was struggling through pain, throwing wounded ducks, and showing his age. Nevertheless, in 2016 his team won come out ahead... But it sure helps.
the Super Bowl – despite Manning, rather than because of him. An exceptionally strong defense was able to compensate for Manning, who at that point was barely running on fumes. And right now... the U.S. is that season’s Peyton Manning: a former all-time great who’s getting by on the fumes of past success and glory. For centuries, the American brand as “the land of opportunity” has attracted the smartest and most motivated people from the rest of the world. After all, it’s thanks to the – now sadly quaint – sentiment of the Statue of Liberty that, as Ian Bremmer of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group explains: ... the U.S. produces far more of both the biggest digital platform companies and the startup “unicorns” that will drive innovation in artificial intelligence, Big Data, cloud computing, autonomous vehicles, drones, and other cutting-edge technologies that will dominate global economic development in decades to come. Thanks in part to all those smart immigrants who arrived in the U.S. before President Trump, who has steadily made it more difficult for foreigners to become residents or citizens, the country also has the wind of strong demographics at its back. A growing working-age population is boosting productivity – and economic growth – in the U.S. The opposite dynamic (an aging and shrinking workforce) is sucking the life out of the economies of Europe, Japan, and even China, and will be a drag on growth in future decades.
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June 2020
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