the current refrain: inventory is constrained
If not for elevated new listing activity, the continued presence of strong buyer demand would have whittled inventory down to improbably low levels in King County. As it stands, last month’s inventory count merely represented a two-decade September nadir.
in June). The last time the County tallied this many new listings over a 12-month period was in February 2011 (46,994). So, incredibly, despite conditions in King County objectively favouring sellers since the beginning of the pandemic, the lack of balance in our current market would have been exacerbated if not for the elevated new listings activity. In some ways, new listings have played the role of unsung hero, accruing in the background while most of the attention has remained on elevated sales counts and depleted inventory. If the trend of further inventory contraction in the face of steady demand continues for the next few months, we could see conditions remain challenging for buyers through to the new year.
The most compelling real estate story in King County continues to be centered on housing supply—or rather, a lack thereof. To be more precise, inventory levels—that is, the number of homes available for purchase at a given point in time—fell to 3,122 in September, which is the lowest count for any September in 20 years (at least—the available data don’t go further back). September was the third straight month of receding inventory, with last month’s count down 39% from 2020’s September number and 60% below the past-decade September average. What gives? Well, for all of the chatter about softening sales counts, the fact remains that buyers continue to be active in the County’s housing market. For example, while we came up short of the 4,000 threshold for sales in September, we did tally 3,672, which is 27%
higher than the past 10-year average for September. It extends a run going back to June whereby the number of sales accruing in the previous 12 months exceed 40,000. For example, between October 2020 and September 2021 (inclusive), King County tallied 41,068 sales and, notably, for the 12 months ending in August 2021, the total was an all-time high of 41,150. In acknowledging the above, it is interesting to note that new listings activity—that is, the number of homes that are newly-listed on MLS each month (which are added to that month’s inventory if they don’t sell)—remain above historical averages and by some measures are higher than they have been in a decade. To be specific, the previous-12-month new listings count in King County was 44,615 in September, having been in the neighbourhood of 45,000 for 6 consecutive months (peaking at 45,824
Copyright © 2021 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of October 5, 2021. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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