Analyzing Stability of Estimates at Completion
The differences in results between Christensen (1996) and Kim et al. (2019) bring into question the applicability and success of EVM for programs with different characteristics, such as those with long development periods. Younossi et al. (2007) correlated length of the development period in defense programs with cost growth. They found that shorter programs have less cost growth than longer programs. Thus, this article aims to fulfill two objectives. First, it seeks to examine the stability of EVM metrics in estimating final cost for long duration development efforts. Long duration is defined as 5 years or more. Second, this article aims to expand the traditional cost-centric EVM examination of defense programs by also analyzing schedule. More specifically, EAC stability properties, when using ES metrics in long duration defense programs, are explored.
Data To facilitate comparisons with the works of Christensen (1996) and Kim et al. (2019), this article analyzes U.S. defense acquisition programs. The data are retrieved from the Earned Value Management Central Repository (EVM-CR) in the form of Integrated Program Management Report (IPMR) cost data sheets. EVM-CR is managed by the Integrated Program Management (IPM) division, Office of the Under Secretary of
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Defense ARJ , Spring 2025, Vol. 32 No. 1
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