Vector Electricity Asset Management Plan— 2020 Update
Transpower's programme of works. Similarly, the Mangere zone substation project to convert Transpower outdoor oil filled 33kV circuit breakers to indoor fixed pattern switchgear was forecast for completion in FY20 in AMP 2019. However, this project will rollover into FY21 due to Transpower’ programme timing. For the SH16 Safe Roads Project, the unanticipated high costs have caused NZTA to pull back on this project and look at a redesign. It is expected that with recent announcements on Government funding this project and others may come back onto the horizon. REVISION OF LOAD FORECAST The continued downward trend for electricity demand per existing customer has the effect of tempering the forward total load forecasts and has allowed in some instances new infill housing and redevelopment housing demand to effectively take up the existing network capacity and thereby defer otherwise required network reinforcement. Overall future forecasted spend for distribution reinforcement has been reviewed with several projects amended to reflect the preferred activity pattern including HV and LV reinforcement, and 11 kV feeder meshing in the Northern network. IMPACT OF SRMP INITIATIVES As noted earlier, the SRMP brought forward some planned expenditure from later years in the AMP to deliver the reliability benefit earlier. One of those accelerated programmes was the feeder automation plan where an eight-year programme was brought forward to a one-year programme to be completed this financial year. There have been cost increases in this condensed programme due to resource constraints and while spend in this area has been limited in the remainder of the DPP period due to this concentrated effort, plans for future spend are included in later years of the AMP period, increasing the overall spend for automation over what was included in the 2019 AMP. Another activity as part of the SRMP was to bring forward the new zone substation at Kaukapakapa from its planned period in FY29 to be completed in FY20. The primary driver in bringing forward this project is that it addresses the capacity security risk at Helensville zone substation thereby allowing the transformers to be changed out now at a low risk. It is estimated that the SAIDI improvement the zone substation will deliver is 1.6 minutes. Following on from the RY20 SRMP initiatives, some future resilience projects have been more specifically identified and added to this AMP update. The reactive management model changes under the SRMP will continue and increased spend has been allowed for that purpose both in CAPEX and OPEX. RISK AND PRIORITY It is an ongoing part of asset lifecycle management to reassess risk and priorities of the activities required to maintain the existing network. Information from fault history, condition testing and tools such as our CBARM models all play a part in establishing the required activity and timing in our network programmes of work. Risk and priority have also been considered for projects in the System Growth expenditure category in order to accommodate what we can of growth projects within our capacity Based on the risk profile or alternate solutions being available under Symphony, projects have been reprioritised, amended from the original intended solution or phased differently across the AMP period. All projects will continue to be re-evaluated annually or as the risk or drivers change. INCREASING CONSTRUCTION COSTS The project for installation of cable ducts coinciding with NZTA’s safety improvement programme along SH1 from Warkworth to Wellsford has incurred much greater civil costs than initially anticipated and is now expected to be complete in FY22 rather than FY21. Increased construction costs along with an increase in tendered pricing for switchgear has required a lift in the project value for the Liverpool 110kV SWBD extension and bus zone protection project. Costs for the City Rail Line (CRL) in the CBD completion have also increased, in part due to the extended timeframe and in part due to increased construction and civil costs. Resource requirements and constraints During the RY2017-19 period of exceptional growth, living and working in the Auckland region tested affordability for many workers. This problem also manifested for businesses and tested their ability to retain and attract the right skilled workforce to meet their operating requirements. These challenges are acute for us and our FSPs, as we must attract and retain highly specialised skilled workers that are constantly presented with opportunities to work in similar roles in more affordable parts of the country.
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