Vector Electricity Asset Management Plan— 2020 Update
SYMPHONY FOR OUR ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION NETWORK Symphony emerged from a scenario planning exercise in 2018 that identified alternative future scenarios for the next ten years. These were labelled Pop, Rock, and Symphony and modelled variations of two key inputs – the uptake of new customer technologies and the network response. Under the Pop scenario, a 22% increase in network demand was predicted by 2028. This was based on a steady energy efficiency uptake; steady electric vehicle (EV), solar and battery uptake, and intelligent but passive management of the network. The Rock scenario showed that with faster EV, solar and battery uptake network demand could increase by 38%. The Symphony scenario showed that with investment in network intelligence and digital platforms, innovative pricing signals, and integration of distributed energy resources, Vector could limit demand increases to 7%. As stated in our previous AMP, “The two greatest uncertainties around future demand growth are the speed of the uptake of new customer side technologies and the network response to such technologies”. By using a consistent rate of customer growth and testing the impact of different variables relating to those core uncertainties, a scenario emerged where our network could mould to the demand curves of the future. By adopting Symphony as our preferred scenario to manage future demand growth, in 2019 we forecast a reduction in $78m in system growth expenditures for the period of 2019-2028. Such savings are passed on to our customers. This showed that by forecasting and planning for a demand future we were also shaping it. We have consequently continued to embed Symphony as a proactive strategy in our network asset management and planning, ensuring that decisions and investments are made around the customer. Symphony seeks to manage uncertainty by both responding to, and leading, change for customers and goes beyond traditional poles and wires solutions in analysing options for network investments. In adopting this approach, Symphony minimises the risk of ‘stranded assets’ by deferring, or avoiding, costly investments in traditional network infrastructure which may not have a role in the future. As an investment approach, Symphony avoids unnecessary investments in physical network assets to ensure long-term efficiency for customers in the context of future demand which is subject to rapid change. In addition to the development and adoption of new technology, Symphony also considers the impact of global and domestic policies and climate impacts, as well as unquantifiable ‘unknown unknowns’. To ensure an efficient and agile response to this uncertainty, Symphony leverages smart demand management technology, optimised by smart digital platforms which can support increasing penetration of DERs, and integrating network-level data analytics and customer behavioural insights to ensure that where physical network investments are required, this reinforcement and design is targeted towards consumption. For example, our DERMS makes use of predictive modelling algorithms to assess and predict utility loads, customer demand, capacity, and market dynamics in real time and it can automatically issue commands in response to these predictions. This facilitates the coordination of DERs and demand management technology to provide visibility and flexibility at a network level. The result is a symphony where customers, the network, and wider energy services work together seamlessly.
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