M id A tlantic Real Estate Journal — Spring Preview —April 24 - May 14, 2020 — 11C
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C ommercial M ortgage B anking
By R. Brenner Green, Real Property Capital Bottoming Out..?
B
eing a lifelong boater/ fisherman/sailor most of which has taken
toward closing in maybe June but definitely July. Some are saying they are out for the next few months and this includes some of the primary dealers so it seems to be more of a credit decision in some cases rather than a liquidity issue which is a good thing. 4. We Americans are a way more resilient culture than we are being given credit for in the media. Every article I see with a headline that reads ‘The WayWe (insert “Work,” “Shop,” “Eat” here) Will Change For- ever” I gloss right over and move on to the next one. We
will bounce back more quickly than the pundits predict. As I keep trying to tell my parents, it really does help to turn off the news. Keep your head up, look for the rising tide that’s coming, and plug the holes where your boat is leaking until we all get back to the shore. R. Brenner Green is a 20-year veteran in commer- cial real estate finance and president of Real Property Capital, Inc., a full-service commercial mortgage bank- ing firm based in the Phila - delphia suburbs.
place in the really shal- low bays of South Jersey, the term bot- toming out always brings to mind the though t o f running over
Keep your head up, look for the rising tide that’s coming, and plug the holes where your boat is leaking until we all get back to the shore.
R. Brenner Green
a sandbar until you are “hard aground.” The market feels about as hard aground as the Exxon Valdez at the moment. For my metaphor, loan defaults and people generally losing money is the oil that is flowing everywhere. While it would normally be risky to call a bot- tom (give or take a few weeks) with so much uncertainty and things generally left to the unknown, after thinking it over with the all of the extra time alone, the willingness to throw it on the line and call being near the bottom of the outgoing tide of capital (do you like the way I worked another boating reference in there?) is based on the following. Except for #1, here are some reasons to be optimistic that things are going to start on the upswing over the next few weeks: 1. We can’t really get any worse without having much larger problems such as the risk a huge segment of the population not being able to buy gas and groceries which will lead to social unrest. We are already seeing the first signs of this with the protests. This concept is really lost on the academics and billionaires if you read or watch any news, but it’s a fact that something has to give soon. 2. Now that most bankers are done processing their PPP ap- plications, many but not quite what I would call “most” are indicating a willingness to look at new business starting some time this week. Two things on this; 1. The level of banking executive involved in process- ing these applications was really impressive with many high-level people jumping in and rolling up their sleeves. The kind of stuff that makes you feel good about being an American. 2. I would love to know how the government was able to get this done so fast and get everyone to participate. It’s unprecedented if you think about it. 3. Many Wall Street type
shops (think anyone who makes a living by packaging and selling loans) are also say-
ing they are looking to start quoting new business over the next week or two with an eye
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