APPENDIX H | HEALTH AND ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF PROGRESS
The Public Health Computational and Operation Research (PHICOR) team develops computational approaches, methods, models, and tools to help decision makers better understand and address complex systems in health and public health. The Aspen Institute asked the PHICOR research team to calculate the lifetime benefits in Oakland if stakeholders can get more youth physically active at least 60 minutes a day, as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Here are PHICOR’s projections based on data from youth ages 14 to 18.
14 14%
14% of Oakland Youth Are Currently Active at Least One Hour Daily
14 25%
50 50%
75 75%
100 100%
If 25% of Youth Get and Stay Active Until They Are 18 • Fewer Overweight and Obese: 8,482 • Direct Medical
If 50% of Youth Get and Stay Active Until They Are 18 • Fewer Overweight and Obese: 16,959 • Direct Medical
If 75% of Youth Get and Stay Active Until They Are 18 • Fewer Overweight and Obese: 25,456 • Direct Medical
If 100% of Youth Get and Stay Active Until They Are 18 • Fewer Overweight and Obese: 33,953 • Direct Medical
Costs Averted: $157.1 million
Costs Averted: $315.1 million
Costs Averted: $473.1 million
Costs Averted: $631.0 million
• Productivity
• Productivity
• Productivity
• Productivity
Losses Averted: $171.2 million • Years of Life Saved: 9,829
Losses Averted: $342.5 million • Years of Life Saved: 19,674
Losses Averted: $514.2 million • Years of Life Saved: 29,537
Losses Averted: $685.9 million • Years of Life Saved: 39,401
Fewer Overweight and Obese Youth: Number of additional youth dropping below the 85th Body Mass Index (BMI) percentile, which is the CDC’s definition of overweight. Currently, 20% of Oakland girls and 18% of boys are overweight; another 12% of girls and 17% of boys are obese (at or above the 95th BMI percentile). Direct Medical Costs Averted: By reducing youth’s BMI, they will be less likely to develop obesity- related health conditions later in life (e.g., stroke, cancer, heart disease and diabetes). Avoiding such conditions will save medical costs such as hospitalizations, medications and doctor visits.
Productivity Losses Averted: Avoiding obesity-related conditions will make people more productive (e.g., less sick days and longer lives), which will provide savings for businesses and society. Years of Life Saved: Avoiding obesity-related health conditions will also lengthen people’s lives. Youth who move from above the 85th BMI percentile (overweight) to below the bar will on average lengthen their lives by approximately two years.
Source: PHICOR, www.bruceylee.com/phicor . PHICOR Executive Director Bruce Y. Lee, MD, MBA, bruceleemdmba@gmail.com
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PROJECT PLAY — AN INITIATIVE OF THE ASPEN INSTITUTE
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