Wellesley Public Schools: Fiscal Year 2026 Budget
The projection models for Kindergarten and Grades 1 through Grade 12 differ slightly. The kindergarten model is based on town census data of resident children from birth through age five. An age 4 to kindergarten ratio is developed annually for each school attendance zone. The cohort survival methodology is used to develop Grade 1 through Grade 12 projection. The Massachusetts School Building Authority (MSBA) defines the cohort survival methodology as: Historic enrollment data is used to calculate average grade-to-grade survival ratios (the proportion of students enrolled in one grade and school year to the number of students enrolled in the next grade and school year) to project the number of students in each grade. Wellesley has experienced fluctuations in enrollment. Since the school year 2015-2016, there has been a gradual decrease in enrollment. The reductions have had a significant impact on the elementary grade levels – a reduction of 588 students. The district’s elementary enrollment, which has been in decline for more than a decade, has now stabilized, and the district is forecasting that elementary enrollment will begin increasing each year over the next four years. There are no reductions in elementary sections forecasted for FY’26. Middle and high schools are slated to see enrollment declines until larger cohorts of elementary students progress through our K-5 grade levels and begin arriving at the secondary level. This budget includes staff reductions at middle and high schools calibrated to those student enrollment adjustments.
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